If the case is taken purely on its merits then it does seem very unlikely we will win the appeal, I hope that the historic cases where there has been flexibility both with deadlines and terms and conditions will have some bearing, that's the way common law works but not statute law, if precedence is a factor we have a chance to win the appeal, if it isn't then we have very little. The punishment does not fit the 'crime', but that may also have no bearing as it is basically subjective. A few MPs are getting behind us so hopefully common sense will prevail. If you were a betting man what odds would you take for us winning the appeal? If I saw 4/1 I'd personally think about backing us, I'd consider 4/7 losing which is an arbitrage (back both and still win) so I'm going 2/5 lose 2/1 win. So that's a 33% chance - not all that scientific but one's willingness to part with money is a good guide in terms of probability.