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War in Ukraine

Dude, I've been talking about that for years on here.....are you trolling?

I literally said where we would likely be now back a few weeks after this started. All anyone had to do was look at the numbers and thus likely result.....I started out as pro Ukraine winning and all the 'morality' stuff before I looked at both sides. It's all on the Hol thread before we moved.

I'm a new member and not followed the thread from the beginning so I don't know what you said originally and my view is only observation. My view is also that had Biden given fuller backing then Russia would've been defeated, the fact that Putin will agree to this deal is because he knows how powerful the USA is militarily and Trump knows it too. Putin knows that if he doesn't agree he's going to piss off Trump and get smashed on the battlefield and the unlike Biden, Trump isn't going to s*** the bed about Putin's nuke sabre rattling.

That said, if Trump had stayed in power I don't think Putin would've invaded. He may have just waited but I don't think Trump would've let him and I think the excuse of Ukraine and NATO expansion would've been scaled back. Trump was already criticising European nations military spend the first time round.

I also don't think most western people have seen the brutality of this war, the media given has shielded them, and a quick trip onto Rumble would've have them realise that it's not pretty, even after they are taken prisoner (especially Ukrainian prisoners). That's sobering.

As for Gaza, Trumps plan is my suggestion from post Oct 7 on the BBS, those c**** Hamas dug down not built up.
 
I'm a new member and not followed the thread from the beginning so I don't know what you said originally and my view is only observation. My view is also that had Biden given fuller backing then Russia would've been defeated, the fact that Putin will agree to this deal is because he knows how powerful the USA is militarily and Trump knows it too. Putin knows that if he doesn't agree he's going to piss off Trump and get smashed on the battlefield and the unlike Biden, Trump isn't going to s*** the bed about Putin's nuke sabre rattling.

If you take the position that we have to defeat Russia over Ukraine (I don't but there you go) then it's certainly true that to achieve that you needed both Ukraine, Europe's and America's army.

There is also the question of timing at what point are we talking about? If this had been done in 2022 then it would be far more easy than now as Russia essentially only had around 400,000 troops at that point whereas now that's doubled.

It's conceivable that in a world without nuclear weapons that this might have happened and that America and Europe would have committed to fighting Russia conventionally.

But while you personally and a small number of war hawks are convinced that MAD will always work and that Russia would never press the button I and quite frankly the majority at the top levels in the State department (both Biden and Trump officials) don't agree with that.

Regardless, there isn't enough support in the US for boots on the ground and never was. The outline for involvement was made quite clear by Biden and Ukraine were constantly looking to involve the US in the actual physical fighting...still are.

That said, if Trump had stayed in power I don't think Putin would've invaded. He may have just waited but I don't think Trump would've let him and I think the excuse of Ukraine and NATO expansion would've been scaled back. Trump was already criticising European nations military spend the first time round.

Sure, the original America motive was to inch Ukraine out of Russia's orbit and be right up onto Russia's borders....the idea being is that eventually you break Russia up into competing regions and thus end its threat. It's not rocket science, it's just lied about like everything else. However, 2014 changed all that and 2022 essentially bought us into this second cold war......The whole neocon ideology has been a fecking disaster for Joe Public everywhere.

It's true that Trump was a complete break from that....he isn't a neocon unless it's Israel and so I imagine he and Putin would have come to terms....They would have certainly have agreed on the 2022 deal that's for certain and Ukraine would have avoided much of this disaster and have twenty percent of its country back.

What I don't think you are getting is exactly America's long term motivation in all this. America don't care about Ukraine, only as a low cost proxy, they don't care about all the morality stuff that's waffled about. What they care about is weakening Russia and divorcing Germany from Russia....the Nord pipeline is gone (Ukraine/US did that), America energy is being bought, two more Nato countries to sell arms to and division is achieved in Europe.....Job done, so now they want out. All Trump sees is that the wins are already accomplished and he's only seeing extra cost in remaining.

The only difference between Biden and Trump is the timing. Biden would have gone on much longer but essentially both would have cut and run before boots on the ground were required.

I also don't think most western people have seen the brutality of this war, the media given has shielded them, and a quick trip onto Rumble would've have them realise that it's not pretty, even after they are taken prisoner (especially Ukrainian prisoners). That's sobering.

One hundred percent, this has been the first war where a complete layman who might be interested in the actual truth could compare the mainstream media to alternative media and actually accessed both propaganda campaigns and actual real footage from the war and decide for themselves what they agreed with.

As for Gaza, Trumps plan is my suggestion from post Oct 7 on the BBS, those c**** Hamas dug down not built up.

I'm just fed up with involvement in foreign wars.

For example, India gets to just watch.....No one's selling narratives about involvement for India are they.
 
If you take the position that we have to defeat Russia over Ukraine (I don't but there you go) then it's certainly true that to achieve that you needed both Ukraine, Europe's and America's army.

There is also the question of timing at what point are we talking about? If this had been done in 2022 then it would be far more easy than now as Russia essentially only had around 400,000 troops at that point whereas now that's doubled.

It's conceivable that in a world without nuclear weapons that this might have happened and that America and Europe would have committed to fighting Russia conventionally.

But while you personally and a small number of war hawks are convinced that MAD will always work and that Russia would never press the button I and quite frankly the majority at the top levels in the State department (both Biden and Trump officials) don't agree with that.

Regardless, there isn't enough support in the US for boots on the ground and never was. The outline for involvement was made quite clear by Biden and Ukraine were constantly looking to involve the US in the actual physical fighting...still are.



Sure, the original America motive was to inch Ukraine out of Russia's orbit and be right up onto Russia's borders....the idea being is that eventually you break Russia up into competing regions and thus end its threat. It's not rocket science, it's just lied about like everything else. However, 2014 changed all that and 2022 essentially bought us into this second cold war......The whole neocon ideology has been a fecking disaster for Joe Public everywhere.

It's true that Trump was a complete break from that....he isn't a neocon unless it's Israel and so I imagine he and Putin would have come to terms....They would have certainly have agreed on the 2022 deal that's for certain and Ukraine would have avoided much of this disaster and have twenty percent of its country back.

What I don't think you are getting is exactly America's long term motivation in all this. America don't care about Ukraine, only as a low cost proxy, they don't care about all the morality stuff that's waffled about. What they care about is weakening Russia and divorcing Germany from Russia....the Nord pipeline is gone (Ukraine/US did that), America energy is being bought, two more Nato countries to sell arms to and division is achieved in Europe.....Job done, so now they want out. All Trump sees is that the wins are already accomplished and he's only seeing extra cost in remaining.

The only difference between Biden and Trump is the timing. Biden would have gone on much longer but essentially both would have cut and run before boots on the ground were required.



One hundred percent, this has been the first war where a complete layman who might be interested in the actual truth could compare the mainstream media to alternative media and actually accessed both propaganda campaigns and actual real footage from the war and decide for themselves what they agreed with.



I'm just fed up with involvement in foreign wars.

For example, India gets to just watch.....No one's selling narratives about involvement for India are they.
 
Let's address this boots on the ground thing. You didn't ever need that and won't. Ukraine have the men to do it, all you need is air power, that's enough, the Russians just wouldn't handle it.

I don't want to meander on the rest of it, of course it could've been done differently, but it wasn't and what I don't agree with is pulling up the rug and being soft on Putin because frankly, we don't need to be.

As for all those nukes, the Russian military spend tells me that they aren't maintained even if you don't account for the rampant fraud and embezzlement widespread across the rest of the Russian Military and are as much at risk of blowing up inside their own silos as being launched on target, not that I'd want 1 to even get through. So it's not MAD for me, it's SAD (some assured destruction) for NATO and GA (Guaranteed Annihilation) for Russia.
 
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When I suggested that the credit for putting the squeeze on Putin ought to be given to Zelenskyy rather than Trump, it seems I might have been wrong!

Zelenskyy too may be a conduit for the action and not the source of it. The source may well be our own Jonathan Powell. Who is a very clever and experienced negotiator of mediated resolutions.


Quiet diplomacy is something we have always done well. Good to know we still can.
 
When I suggested that the credit for putting the squeeze on Putin ought to be given to Zelenskyy rather than Trump, it seems I might have been wrong!

Zelenskyy too may be a conduit for the action and not the source of it. The source may well be our own Jonathan Powell. Who is a very clever and experienced negotiator of mediated resolutions.


Quiet diplomacy is something we have always done well. Good to know we still can.
Sir Keir - giant on the world stage.
 
Giant fibber, that's for sure.

Media keeping his dodgy secret for now.
If he has one, and it’s in his private life, then the media are behaving honourably.

Why should the contents of a PM’s dustbin be seen as fair game by mud slingers anymore than anyone else’s?

Just because the public are interested doesn’t mean something is in the public interest. The right of public figures to a private life has been painfully established by the press in recent years so it looks as though they have learned their lesson.
 
Poots ain't gonna take it, gonna play Trump. The only way to deal with him is overwhelming force, Trump doesn't get that.
 
Poots ain't gonna take it, gonna play Trump. The only way to deal with him is overwhelming force, Trump doesn't get that.
How's that going to play out?

You have the all the answers, so tell us exactly what this overwhelming force will look like and what the end game will be.
 
Now Putin has, as expected, rolled out his long list of excuses on why whilst a ceasefire might be desirable it isn’t possible until all his objectives are met the focus returns to the WH.

Will Trump back up his rhetoric with immediate action when thwarted, as he usually does, or will he reinvent what he said because it’s Putin?

It’s a defining moment.

Maybe there’s another way he will try to solve this! It’s daft and completely impractical but this is Trump we are dealing with. He specialises in the daft and impractical so don’t write it off.

He has already suggested Canada becomes a US state, wants to acquire Greenland, take control of Panama and Gaza to create a super resort.

Could he suggest making Ukraine a US state too? His best buddy next door wouldn’t object, would he?
 
How's that going to play out?

You have the all the answers, so tell us exactly what this overwhelming force will look like and what the end game will be.
It plays out by just not being weak. If he knows you are then he'll push.

He just needs to be stood up to and to know he can't win.

Surely you don't rate their military? They're s***
 
It plays out by just not being weak. If he knows you are then he'll push.

He just needs to be stood up to and to know he can't win.

Surely you don't rate their military? They're s***
We have stood up to Putin with a very expensive lot of weapons along with intelligence and training.
If he comes to the table, that will be why.

If he doesn't, I expect more of the same but this time with a lot more force.
Both sides know that the war has to end. Putin knows he cannot defeat the West in any conflict, so his best interests will be served by negotiating now while he still has the military upper hand and Trump hasn't put the squeeze on their economy.
 
Poots ain't gonna take it, gonna play Trump. The only way to deal with him is overwhelming force, Trump doesn't get that.

Dude, I've been hearing that forever.

Not only was that never going to happen for a non Nato country the reality is your certainty isn't shared by those at the top of military departments whether it was Biden's or Trump's.

People have always had the choice of volunteering to fight Russia.....In fact if all the people who speak of fighting Russia had actually gone over and fought Russia instead of talking about it maybe you could have had this 'overwhelming force'.

I view it as 'Reddit battalion' talk.
 
The question of motivations for the various actors involved here is a far better indicator of what's likely to happen.

The biggest decider of what happens in Ukraine is the US......a lot has been spoken about how that became the case but regardless....No American involvement = short war (despite all the waffle we heard for years). Biden was prepared to keep the war going for both ideological and geopolitical reasons (the latter being poor judgement in my view).....but Trump isn't interested in either of those.

Ukraine's interest has always been in getting America and Europe involved in the fighting and widening out the war. The US know this of course and aren't going to do it.

After these Russia talks failing I see America economic action against Russia (but that's basically performative) and soon enough Trump will push for an election in Ukraine......Because Zelensky isn't going to make a deal with Russia...However, I see the election idea being initially opposed by Europe and Ukraine....but with a threat of American pull out maybe they will relent.

In fact I see a deal with Russia, where they keep territory as ending in civil war in Ukraine.....If we send our troops there after a peace deal, it could end up like a Northern Ireland situation.

Trump is interested in rapidly altering America's economic geopolitical model and that doesn't involve spending money on foreign wars (except in Israel). Indeed, I see him reducing the military budget as he moves America onto a more isolationist position.

Trump wants Nato purely for defence exports, not for involvement in wars. In fact if a Nato war looked likely I would see him leaving Nato rather than fighting a Nato war.

In fact....and I'm just chewing the cud here, I don't even see him wanting to get involved in a war with Iran......Something Israel's leadership are pushing very hard for because of their nuke development....and Israel will probably end up attacking them. He will look to contain both Netanyahu and Iran.....Probably because of the financial costs it would incur and the issue of escalation into a much larger and dangerous war.

Now does this mean that America's going to get the choice of staying out of a middle east war?.....I don't see that as in Netanyahu's interests.
 
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We have stood up to Putin with a very expensive lot of weapons along with intelligence and training.
If he comes to the table, that will be why.

If he doesn't, I expect more of the same but this time with a lot more force.
Both sides know that the war has to end. Putin knows he cannot defeat the West in any conflict, so his best interests will be served by negotiating now while he still has the military upper hand and Trump hasn't put the squeeze on their economy.

We've given a fraction of old kit, plus a bit of the good stuff to Ukraine and it's battered him. Putin hasn't received a sniff of what Europe could give him from the air. If you put F-35, Rafale, Gripon and Typhoon in the skies out there even with non-US made ordnance then Russia is dead in the air. The Su-35 is about all the can put up and any 4.5 gen western jet with Active radar (versus the Su-35 Passive radar) and Meteor is going to take them down, especially when using Link 16 which is integrated into NATO systems. Russia know this so just won't engage, they would just be pushed back out of range and won't be able to drop anymore of those FAB glide bombs. Just as the knew that their "5th Gen" "Stealth" Su-57 wasn't what they claimed either so it barely gets involved. This is without using the F-35.

The greatest threat would be SAMs and they would just get removed by western air to ground weapons. So what are you looking at then? A bunch of troops on the ground that are all exposed to the air and can't be supplied because European air power is looking into the Donbas and beyond, taking that stuff out. That's air power, that isn't even using Apache Guardian.

Russia are fielding T64 and T62 tanks, ALL of the "amazing" T-90's are destroyed. Tank convoy? Say hello to Brimstone - six gone in a single salvo from miles and miles away. I don't know what to say, they are winning simply because they are attacking positions over and over, and firing in shell after shell. Ukraine has managed to hold them back through some innovation, old western kit, western support and some modern western accurate medium and long range arms.

Russian Bear, it charges, you can bluff it by standing up to it.
 

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