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War in Ukraine

Stirlingsays said:
The question of motivations for the various actors involved here is a far better indicator of what's likely to happen.

The biggest decider of what happens in Ukraine is the US......a lot has been spoken about how that became the case but regardless....No American involvement = short war (despite all the waffle we heard for years). Biden was prepared to keep the war going for both ideological and geopolitical reasons (the latter being poor judgement in my view).....but Trump isn't interested in either of those.

Ukraine's interest has always been in getting America and Europe involved in the fighting and widening out the war. The US know this of course and aren't going to do it.

After these Russia talks failing I see America economic action against Russia (but that's basically performative) and soon enough Trump will push for an election in Ukraine......Because Zelensky isn't going to make a deal with Russia...However, I see the election idea being initially opposed by Europe and Ukraine....but with a threat of American pull out maybe they will relent.

In fact I see a deal with Russia, where they keep territory as ending in civil war in Ukraine.....If we send our troops there after a peace deal, it could end up like a Northern Ireland situation.

Trump is interested in rapidly altering America's economic geopolitical model and that doesn't involve spending money on foreign wars (except in Israel). Indeed, I see him reducing the military budget as he moves America onto a more isolationist position.

Trump wants Nato purely for defence exports, not for involvement in wars. In fact if a Nato war looked likely I would see him leaving Nato rather than fighting a Nato war.

In fact....and I'm just chewing the cud here, I don't even see him wanting to get involved in a war with Iran......Something Israel's leadership are pushing very hard for because of their nuke development....and Israel will probably end up attacking them. He will look to contain both Netanyahu and Iran.....Probably because of the financial costs it would incur and the issue of escalation into a much larger and dangerous war.

Now does this mean that America's going to get the choice of staying out of a middle east war?.....I don't see that as in Netanyahu's interests.
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I think this is a very decent post of likelihood of happenings.
 
Spindle said:
We've given a fraction of old kit, plus a bit of the good stuff to Ukraine and it's battered him. Putin hasn't received a sniff of what Europe could give him from the air. If you put F-35, Rafale, Gripon and Typhoon in the skies out there even with non-US made ordnance then Russia is dead in the air. The Su-35 is about all the can put up and any 4.5 gen western jet with Active radar (versus the Su-35 Passive radar) and Meteor is going to take them down, especially when using Link 16 which is integrated into NATO systems. Russia know this so just won't engage, they would just be pushed back out of range and won't be able to drop anymore of those FAB glide bombs. Just as the knew that their "5th Gen" "Stealth" Su-57 wasn't wnat they claimed either so it barely gets involved. This is without using the F-35.

The greatest threat would be SAMs and they would just get removed by western air to ground weapons. So what are you looking at then? A bunch of troops on the ground that are all exposed to the air and can't be supplied because European air power is looking into the Donbas and beyond, taking that stuff out. That's air power, that isn't even using Apache Guardian.

Russia are fielding T64 and T62 tanks, ALL of the "amazing" T-90's are destroyed. I don't know what to say, they are winning simply because they are attacking positions over and over, and firing in shell after shell. Ukraine has managed to hold them back through some innovation, old western kit, western support and some modern western accurate medium and long range arms.

Russian Bear, it charges, you can bluff it by standing up to it.
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Thanks for that journey through the A to Z of military hardware.

As I have said, if Putin won't negotiate now, I will expect to see a lot more Western hardware employed against him going forward.
I'm guessing Putin will settle while he has some advantage on the battlefield and a piece of Ukrainian territory.
 
Hrolf The Ganger said:
Thanks for that journey through the A to Z of military hardware.

As I have said, if Putin won't negotiate now, I will expect to see a lot more Western hardware employed against him going forward.
I'm guessing Putin will settle while he has some advantage on the battlefield and a piece of Ukrainian territory.
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I've been following it all quite closely and I think Russia calculate two plans, one is to finish in the summer with most if not all of the four oblasts taken and some deal with the Americans that ends their participation.....the Americans pushing for elections in Ukraine for agreement on a peace deal.

However, if that doesn't end the war.....I see Russia effectively looking to take over Ukraine where they install a muppet government.....just as the Americans did.

What is hard to factor in is what do the Europeans do....Do they reluctantly go along with the Americans or do they go it alone with this 'coalition of the willing'....That they are trying to get the Americans to support (unlikely).....I think if they go to war with Russia it won't be with article five approval.....because it would be fighting in a non Nato country.

I've been saying it for a while now, the lack of opposition to all this escalation is going to result in body bags and probable terrorist attacks......And Britain gets absolutely nothing out of any of this but treasure thrown down another black hole.
 
Stirlingsays said:
I've been following it all quite closely and I think Russia calculate two plans, one is to finish in the summer with most if not all of the four oblasts taken and some deal with the Americans that ends their participation.....the Americans pushing for elections in Ukraine for agreement on a peace deal.

However, if that doesn't end the war.....I see Russia effectively looking to take over Ukraine where they install a muppet government.....just as the Americans did.

What is hard to factor in is what do the Europeans do....Do they reluctantly go along with the Americans or do they go it alone with this 'coalition of the willing'....That they are trying to get the Americans to support (unlikely).....I think if they go to war with Russia it won't be with article five approval.....because it would be fighting in a non Nato country.

I've been saying it for a while now, the lack of opposition to all this escalation is going to result in body bags and probable terrorist attacks......And Britain gets absolutely nothing out of any of this but treasure thrown down another black hole.
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I find it hard to imagine a scenario where we allow Putin to take Ukraine, unless we are just going to retreat to a position where we arm all NATO countries to the teeth and accept the possibility that Putin could continue his little tour into non NATO countries.
 
Hrolf The Ganger said:
I find it hard to imagine a scenario where we allow Putin to take Ukraine, unless we are just going to retreat to a position where we arm all NATO countries to the teeth and accept the possibility that Putin could continue his little tour into non NATO countries.
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Back when this started this was why I said we needed to close the war down as quickly as possible.....Ukraine couldn't beat Russia and all I saw was a giant and pointless money pit all based upon who ran the frigging donbas.

Ukraine have been led down the Primrose path and now everyone wants to save face with the giant responsibility of stupid decisions meaning money and lives have to be thrown at the problem.....It's obvious that Ukraine aren't going to sign a peace deal if Europe hold out the possibility of fighting for them.

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me what the upside of this all was.......Russia were never going to invade us....Why are we getting involved in foreign wars.....None of these clowns wanted to join in when the Falklands was on did they.....But apparently we are really offended by which slav owns what part of slavic land.

When I was 20 no one gave a feck about Ukraine because it was still part of the Soviet Union.....but now I'm meant to care?
 
Do you lot not think that the only response you have to people suggesting that we don’t just roll over and let your Motherland get exactly what it wanted is to go and fight them ourselves suggests that your position is extremely f*cking weak?
 
DanH said:
Do you lot not think that the only response you have to people suggesting that we don’t just roll over and let your Motherland get exactly what it wanted is to go and fight them ourselves suggests that your position is extremely f*cking weak?
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Not as weak as that paragraph.

So when are you signing up.....because presumably you are expecting others to stump up.
 
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