Simultaneously a bumbling fool and a malevolently manipulative genius.
The bookies have him ahead.
I don’t think he is actually either of those.
It would take a real expert to diagnose his actual condition but he is, to my amateur eye, clearly mentally abnormal and probably unstable as well. He is also being manipulated by shadowy people with attitudes I find appalling.
Much of what he says is indeed foolish, and is often malevolent, but he is no genius. He is following the script taught him by Roy Cohn. Something he has done for many years. He knows it works. He now applies it instinctively in all circumstances. Those manipulating him can anticipate him with confidence, without him realising.
It ought not go unnoticed that all the decent people who agree to work for him, and get to witness him at first hand, end up being very critical of him. People like Bill Barr and John Bolton, among many others. Even his VP, Mike Pence cannot stand him.
There is, I suspect, much more to be learned about how and why Trump got into this situation.
Bookies make their odds on the amounts being placed on each candidate. That Trump is ahead merely suggests to me that more Trump supporters bet than Harris ones do. Nothing to do with genuine predictions.
The guy who has correctly predicted the winner for the last few elections, based on a series of key indicators, including getting it right in 2016 and 2020, has Harris winning.