You can never 100% tell what a tribunal is going to do. My own view ignoring my Palace bias is still we have a very good case.
However the news today that share sale has been completed may give UEFA the wriggle room they need to reverse decision. I put chance of this fairly low but it's possible. Many cases get sorted before they get to tribunals by agreement and the details are never made public as they are always on the basis of not agreeing liability. It really depends on how good our evidence is and how weak UEFA evidence. The fact that the MCO (if there ever was one) no longer exists weakens UEFA case greatly. There is roughly 20 million difference in prize money conference and europa, plus the price of sporting Lisbon player has gone up by 20 million. This means we can demonstrate a loss. As a scenario we agree to be demoted to conference and receive a payment of £40 million from EUFA, and we withdraw appeal. I wonder if this would appeal?
If it goes to appeal the first point is were we a MCO? This is our weakest argument as Eagle had shares in both us and Lyon on due date.
However then when you look at rules on conflict our case is very strong. On 1st of March Lyon were demoted to 2nd division and could not play in Europe. On 1st of March we were playing Millwall so no conflict occurs. When we won fa cup no conflict occurred for same reason. Conflict only occurred after French League reversed demotion.
You then have arguments on day to day control. Textor had control of Lyon but at Palace was Eagle Footballs representative director on board having equal say to other directors. UEFA are mixing up shareholding and being a director. The latter is an employee of company. One of the tests would be could Textor fire any of other 3 directors? Which of course he couldn't.
If the court agree UEFA lose on first count and the decision will be reversed.
My guess is the court will decide we were an MCO but that UEFA did not adequately consider the reality and facts of how the two clubs were run.
The date needed for compliance is UEFA weakness and they have already changed it for future seasons.
As explained above there was no conflict until Lyon demotion was reversed how could Palace know this would occur?
How practical was date even if Lyon had not been demoted earlier.
The previous decision on date upheld it but those clubs had conflict on 1st March. We did not. Therefore in our case the 1st of March was an impossible date. Did all other clubs with shared owners put shares into blind trusts eg Everton and Roma. No they didn't so it is an impossible rule
The court will also consider situation now where there is no conflict and I suspect arbitrate on that basis.
Possible outcomes ?
Palace and Lyon Europa League Forest Conference
Palace and another French club europa Forest Lyon Conference
Heavy criticism of EUFA decision and possibly leave to apply for damages
Leave as per UEFA decision because of timescales but UEFA decision declared unlawful with damages to be decided at a future hearing in 3 months if not agreed between the parties