I suspect that Russia only have the upper hand because the West has only been playing at supporting Ukraine so far. It has been a slow them down and drain resources mission. Presumably the hope was that Putin would become frustrated and find a way to save face while withdrawing.
The question is whether America will allow Ukraine to fall. What would that mean in the longer term?
The concern is that if Putin persists, the West will bring much more hardware to the battlefield and make a much stronger stand.
We have already allowed Russia and China to gain strong influence in parts of Africa with plentiful natural resources. They are on the march. This game is not one we can lose.
Russia and China have a lot in common. Vast behemoths, vast resources and vast international clout.
And a history of invasion with consequent humiliation and limitless suffering they do their best to dress up as "victory".
And both understand the critical, strategic need to have client states buffering their borders.
Chinese influence in Africa is economic with a mix of geo political whereas Russia largely follows the cold war pattern of just the latter. However, closer to home, China has proven themselves to be more combative since Korea to keep a halo of control around their border for their security.
But Russia is all that. Stalin's occupation of the whole of eastern Europe was an exaggerated example; but Putin knows he does not have 400 heavily armed divisions in the field occupying barely functioning countries like Stalin had in 1945. His ambitions are far more nuanced and hemmed in by the resources he has and the resources and readiness and, most importantly, alliances most of his neighbouring countries have.
Thus, he will just have to lump it when it comes to Finland, Poland and the Baltic states. I think it largely propaganda by us scaring us into believing that if he takes Ukraine, the Russian juggernaut would continue its march to the Atlantic.
But he will be damned if he is going to allow fellow Slavic nations like Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus, all stuffed with Russians, to fall under Western control with the risk of having a NATO country on his doorstep.
I suspect the current Western policy is to grind down Russian resources so they have little choice but to accept modest, face-saving gains in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. That is a realistic and sensible end to all this, despite Zelensky's protestations. He should consider himself fortunate and be very grateful to the West that he has any country left to govern.
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