We saw a flood from Ukraine when Russia first invaded. I expect a bigger one now.
Whilst Trump will rack up a trade war with tariffs that will fuel US inflation he won’t interfere militarily over Taiwan. The brightest will leave. Let’s hope we will accept them. Or indeed in the disputes in the South China Sea. Which is not good for any of the western leaning states in the region. The balance of world power was always shifting east but Trump will give it an almighty push. Make America Great Again? More like kick it in the teeth.
It won’t stop for long with Ukraine. Putin will lick his wounds, consolidate and then push on. Without US resolve it will require the rest of NATO to step into the breach for 4 years to hold back the tide. These will be dangerous days.
Trump did nothing for the US economy. Any pre Covid growth was due to Obama, just with a time lag. The inflation in the early Biden years was down to Russia, Covid and Trump. The recovery now is down to Biden, but the credit will be claimed by Trump.
Flows of people are just part of the modern world. They demand effective management but are not just taps you can turn off. Politicians who suggest they can are peddling dreams.
That the people buy those dreams is true and has always been true. It’s how populists win. They lie, as Trump lies, and they win.
What’s surprising is that the people know Trump lies, but choose to ignore it.
Doing the same thing twice and expecting different results?
The right will gloat and think they can do the same in Europe but when it gets messy in the USA they might find we are better at learning lessons than the Americans.