Wisbech often talks about trusting 'experts'.
For me, to justify having that title given to you then you are required to be geniunely correct about your field.
Let's take climate change, now I'm not taking a particular position on it but I'm reminded being told that the experts consulted with Gore over his 'An Inconvenient Truth' movie back in the mid 2000s.
Enough time has elapsed between that movie and the claims made by Gore in that movie using the opinions of 'experts' representing esteemed institutions.
1. Sea Level Rise: 20 Feet in the "Near Future"
- Gore's Prediction: The film shows dramatic animations of Manhattan and Florida submerged under 20 feet (6 meters) of water, stating this could happen "in the near future" if Greenland or West Antarctica ice sheets collapse due to warming. He links it to current trends, implying acceleration within decades.
- What Happened: Global sea levels have risen ~3.7 mm/year (2006–2023 per NASA satellite data), totaling ~6–7 cm since the film—far from 20 feet. IPCC AR6 (2021) projects 0.3–1 meter by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, with no evidence of imminent 6-meter collapse. Greenland/Antarctica are losing mass, but at rates yielding centimeters/decade, not meters (e.g., IMBIE studies show ~0.5 mm/year contribution from both).
- Why It Failed: Models overestimated ice sheet instability; observations show gradual, not catastrophic, melt.
2. Hurricane Intensity and Frequency Surge
- Gore's Prediction: "The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled in the last 30 years" (1970–2005), and warming oceans will cause "stronger and more destructive" storms. He cites Katrina (2005) as a harbinger, showing maps of future flood risks.
- What Happened: Global hurricane frequency has not increased; accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is flat or declining since 2006 (per NOAA and Ryan Maue's data). U.S. landfalling hurricanes: No Cat 4/5 strikes from 2006–2019 (longest drought on record). IPCC AR6 finds "low confidence" in observed increases in intense tropical cyclones attributable to human influence. Katrina-scale events remain rare.
- Why It Failed: Natural variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) dominates short-term trends; the 1970s–1990s rise was partly due to better detection, not just warming.
3. Kilimanjaros Snows "Completely Gone" by Mid-2010s
- Gore's Prediction: The film claims Mount Kilimanjaro's glaciers are melting due to global warming and will be "completely gone" soon (book specifies within a decade, i.e., by ~2016).
- What Happened: Kilimanjaro lost ~90% of its ice since 1912, but ~15–20% remains as of 2023 (per NASA Earth Observatory and glaciological studies). Loss predates modern warming (started ~1880) and is driven mainly by precipitation changes/deforestation, not temperature (summit temps stay below freezing).
- Why It Failed: Attribution error—local factors, not global CO2, are primary.
4. Arctic Ice-Free Summers by 2013–2014
- Gore's Prediction: Cites scientists saying there's a "75% chance" the Arctic could be ice-free in summer "during the next 5 to 7 years" (i.e., 2011–2013). Film shows polar bears drowning due to lost ice.
- What Happened: Arctic summer sea ice minimum: ~7.5 million km² in 2006; ~4.1 million km² in 2023 (NSIDC data)—a decline, but not zero. Lowest was 3.4 million km² (2012), still far from ice-free. No widespread polar bear population collapse (IUCN: stable or increasing in many subpopulations).
- Why It Failed: Cherry-picked extreme model runs; ensemble projections (e.g., CMIP5) show ice-free conditions not until 2030–2050 under high emissions.
5. Global Temperature Rise and Thermometer Record
- Gore's Prediction: Shows a graph implying unprecedented 20th-century warming, predicting continued sharp rise. Claims correlation proves CO2 causation.
- What Happened: Warming paused/hiatus from ~1998–2013 (even IPCC acknowledged), then resumed. But no "hockey stick" acceleration beyond models. UAH satellite data: +0.14°C/decade since 2006—within natural variability bounds.
- Why Partial Fail: Overreliance on Mann's contested hockey stick (criticized in NAS report for statistical issues).
Context and Defenses
- Accurate Parts: Gore correctly highlighted CO2 rise, overall warming (~1.1°C since pre-industrial), and ocean acidification.
- Gore/IPCC Response: Gore clarified some were "illustrative" worst-case scenarios, not firm predictions. Supporters note models have improved, and delays don't disprove long-term risks.
- Sources for Verification:
- Pro-failure: An Inconvenient Truth: A Global Warming Treaty (errors list by UK court, 2007—ruled 9 inaccuracies); books like Inconvenient Facts (Wrightstone, 2017).
- Balanced: IPCC AR6 (2021); NOAA Climate.gov; NASA Vital Signs.
- Pro-Gore: Union of Concerned Scientists fact-checks.
In summary, while the film's core message on anthropogenic warming holds (per consensus science), several high-profile, alarmist predictions overstated speed/severity and have objectively failed to date. This doesn't negate climate change but highlights issues with extrapolating extremes.