Of-Communists

[ASCPFC]

If you think the low birth rate is because of 'the gays' then you might want to do a bit more research into how bloody expensive it is to raise a child at the moment. We were not in a financial position to do it until mid-30s, and this was with both of us with decent careers established and a solid joint income. Even then, my wife is currently on a one year career break as it was going to cost us more to put two in child care than she was earning each month.

If you want people to have more kids, making it more affordable to have housing, childcare and try to keep the general cost of living down.

I was going to post about similar. Cash incentives and tax breaks could also be used. Several countries brought in measures like this. The last I can remember is Cyprus. There was a large payment to have a child. Not sure how it worked out.
Ireland still sucks up to the Catholic Church by only giving a tax break if you are officially married. They could, extend that to registered couples but haven't.
The other obvious thing is that immigration is not the answer. If it's workers paying tax, then that's great but I believe that there is not even a net tax contribution once families are brought over. The clear solution would be short term working visas and no family visas. Work for a couple of years, pay tax and save then go home richer.

 

[DanH]

I was going to post about similar. Cash incentives and tax breaks could also be used. Several countries brought in measures like this. The last I can remember is Cyprus. There was a large payment to have a child. Not sure how it worked out.
Ireland still sucks up to the Catholic Church by only giving a tax break if you are officially married. They could, extend that to registered couples but haven't.
The other obvious thing is that immigration is not the answer. If it's workers paying tax, then that's great but I believe that there is not even a net tax contribution once families are brought over. The clear solution would be short term working visas and no family visas. Work for a couple of years, pay tax and save then go home richer.

Yep - very much agreed. Not sure what the right answer is, but know the current 'solution' is not helping. Many of my mates now have kids, but a lot waited until a similar age to have them for financial reasons. Pretty much all have stopped at 2 as well, as it means having kids into your 40s, which isn't ideal for a number of reasons.

 

[Stirlingsays]

If you think the low birth rate is because of 'the gays' then you might want to do a bit more research into how bloody expensive it is to raise a child at the moment. We were not in a financial position to do it until mid-30s, and this was with both of us with decent careers established and a solid joint income. Even then, my wife is currently on a one year career break as it was going to cost us more to put two in child care than she was earning each month.

If you want people to have more kids, making it more affordable to have housing, childcare and try to keep the general cost of living down.

I do have some sympathy for your view here....maybe more than some sympathy actually.

No, it's not just an over correction on homosexuality from...and I'm just picking the eighties or nineties as somewhere with a better balance.....It's old people living much longer (a success we want to have, but which also provides challenges). Automation looms large in our future....again, with negatives along with the positives.

I would push back a little....and only a little on (because I'm not living your life) on what you're saying on 'not in a financial position' insomuch as I think this is due to expectations in life. Again, only you and your missus know how much this would apply to you....So I'll talk in general terms and trends.

But I would say that in modern times people still want and expect their holidays and general lifestyle level to be maintained when the reality of the past meant that people just got on with it because producing the next generation was beyond important, not just a desired addition.

 

[DanH]

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Ok, so here are the statistics showing how the number of murders in the country kept stable in the country from when records were reliably kept in 1898 broadly up until roughly 1962. This stability is seen even though the population is continually rising. I believe that this is strong evidence for many factors but not least that a socially conservative culture and strong sense of national self naturally produces a higher trust society.

After 1962 we start to see a continual rise in homicides within the country (after 97 the stats are relatively stable at that level) . This continual 35 year rise, in my view, like many situations is influenced by several factors. The abolition of capital punishment, immigration, greater use of drugs and other factors which essentially add up to the effect of the society changing from cultural social conservativism to social liberalism.

I chose homicides to look at essentially because it's a harder area for institutions to fudge and re-categorise for political reasons. Something both Conservative and Labour governments have been guilty of doing......Essentially someone is either murdered or not.

Essentially the reality of this....the fact that all the warm words of social liberalism sound nice but in effect end up with worse consequences was a big factor in opening my eyes many years ago now.

This is interesting, but if you actually look at the dates on the x axes the growth in population from the early 70s is actually during a period where the number of homicides is relatively flat, and then increases after, so I am not sure this is the direct correlation you are after. It also makes sense that it would increase as that appears to be pure number of homicides, rather than per capita.

 

[DanH]

I do have some sympathy for your view here....maybe more than some sympathy actually.

No, it's not just an over correction on homosexuality from...and I'm just picking the eighties or nineties as somewhere with a better balance.....It's old people living much longer (a success we want to have, but which also provides challenges). Automation looms large in our future....again, with negatives along with the positives.

I would push back a little....and only a little on (because I'm not living your life) on what you're saying on 'not in a financial position' insomuch as I think this is due to expectations in life. Again, only you and your missus know how much this would apply to you....So I'll talk in general terms and trends.

But I would say that in modern times people still want and expect their holidays and general lifestyle level to be maintained when the reality of the past meant that people just got on with it because producing the next generation was beyond important, not just a desired addition.

Do have some sympathy to this view too - the Instagram generation have a lot to answer for 🙂

 

[Stirlingsays]

This is interesting, but if you actually look at the dates on the x axes the growth in population from the early 70s is actually during a period where the number of homicides is relatively flat, and then increases after, so I am not sure this is the direct correlation you are after. It also makes sense that it would increase as that appears to be pure number of homicides, rather than per capita.

I think if you take a 'best fit' analysis of the increase it's basically quite linear.

 

[Stirlingsays]

Do have some sympathy to this view too - the Instagram generation have a lot to answer for 🙂

I've never actually had an Instagram account...Is it like TicToc? Essentially just videos and photos?

Sounds like a good way to document your life but obviously a gift to our collective narcissisms.
.

 

[DanH]

Slightly tangential but came across this while I was trying to find if anyone had successfully found a way to measure what we've been discussing.

Happiest Countries in the World 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

Definitely no perfect way to do this but this seemed quite sensible - "To determine the world's happiest country, researchers analyzed comprehensive Gallup polling data from 143 countries for the past three years, specifically monitoring performance in six particular categories: gross domestic product per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make your own life choices, generosity of the general population, and perceptions of internal and external corruption level"

Quite interesting that the high tax/social security, but high levels of state support Scandinavian countries come out on top regularly.

 

[Stirlingsays]

Slightly tangential but came across this while I was trying to find if anyone had successfully found a way to measure what we've been discussing.

Happiest Countries in the World 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

Definitely no perfect way to do this but this seemed quite sensible - "To determine the world's happiest country, researchers analyzed comprehensive Gallup polling data from 143 countries for the past three years, specifically monitoring performance in six particular categories: gross domestic product per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make your own life choices, generosity of the general population, and perceptions of internal and external corruption level"

Quite interesting that the high tax/social security, but high levels of state support Scandinavian countries come out on top regularly.

Some of that criteria possibly has a bias, but my response to this point is always the same and quite to the point.

Small population size, high natural resources.

 

[ASCPFC]

Yep - very much agreed. Not sure what the right answer is, but know the current 'solution' is not helping. Many of my mates now have kids, but a lot waited until a similar age to have them for financial reasons. Pretty much all have stopped at 2 as well, as it means having kids into your 40s, which isn't ideal for a number of reasons.

I've seen similar with my partner's friends. I'm slightly older so had kids at what would now be considered young - early twenties. But my second was well into my thirties due to career and money. My partner's friends are now forties and trying for kids. One is having fertility treatment from Spain. Another had the egg implanted fertilised already (again from Spain) and eventually had twins. But neither parent is the biological parent. I don't blame people or think they're selfish. The cost of living, in particular housing, is crazy here and it's really only when you're well into a career that you can genuinely afford kids - that is if you work. The same will not apply to those on long term benefits living in either housing association or council houses.

 

[Nicholas91]

I've seen similar with my partner's friends. I'm slightly older so had kids at what would now be considered young - early twenties. But my second was well into my thirties due to career and money. My partner's friends are now forties and trying for kids. One is having fertility treatment from Spain. Another had the egg implanted fertilised already (again from Spain) and eventually had twins. But neither parent is the biological parent. I don't blame people or think they're selfish. The cost of living, in particular housing, is crazy here and it's really only when you're well into a career that you can genuinely afford kids - that is if you work. The same will not apply to those on long term benefits living in either housing association or council houses.

My experience is that those from and somewhat committed to remain within a lower socio-economic background, are more likely to have kids young.

Being from a lower socio-economic background myself but with delusional aspirations to move up the scale, I waited until my early-thirties. I believe there are many within my bracket who are doing/will do similar, however some do not achieve the required financial security early enough to do so. I'd put housing at the top of that list. Not that there aren't other factors of course but that is a trend I've noticed. Wanting to better yourself in life and having kids doesn't always work well.

 

[PalazioVecchio]

If you think the low birth rate is because of 'the gays' then you might want to do a bit more research into how bloody expensive it is to raise a child at the moment. We were not in a financial position to do it until mid-30s, and this was with both of us with decent careers established and a solid joint income. Even then, my wife is currently on a one year career break as it was going to cost us more to put two in child care than she was earning each month.

If you want people to have more kids, making it more affordable to have housing, childcare and try to keep the general cost of living down.

traditional countries, with traditional gender-roles...........those countries have affordable housing for one working family man.
Lib-Left countries are a blight on housing affordability. Compelling mothers to go out and earn a crust. Lib-Left countries also inflate house prices by paying top dollar to single mothers on welfare. Often costing more than a fella earns in a good job in any developing Country.

 

[DanH]

traditional countries, with traditional gender-roles...........those countries have affordable housing for one working family man.
Lib-Left countries are a blight on housing affordability. Compelling mothers to go out and earn a crust. Lib-Left countries also inflate house prices by paying top dollar to single mothers on welfare. Often costing more than a fella earns in a good job in any developing Country.

Have you got some real life examples to back this up? Feels very much like a broad brush claim with no actual evidence to support this here, eagle.

What are these ‘traditional countries’ you speak of?

 

[Stirlingsays]

Have you got some real life examples to back this up? Feels very much like a broad brush claim with no actual evidence to support this here, eagle.

What are these ‘traditional countries’ you speak of?

I should imagine It's going to be eastern Europe and Russia, they mostly missed out on the 'joys' of neo and social liberalism.....Hungary is an obvious example that sits between both spheres.

 

[PalazioVecchio]

Have you got some real life examples to back this up? Feels very much like a broad brush claim with no actual evidence to support this here, eagle.

What are these ‘traditional countries’ you speak of?

everywhere to the south of the US-Mexico border. All the islamic World. Most of India etc etc......all have affordable housing for the young working-man with a stay-at-home wife (and a few kids). Unlike London, Dublin or San Francisco. Nor even the Asian countries that are under Western Influence....Japan & South Korea....all iPhones & no kids being born.

Lowest fertility rate in the world....a friend of the West, Taiwan. The textbook definition of a failed society.

 

[cryrst]

I was going to post about similar. Cash incentives and tax breaks could also be used. Several countries brought in measures like this. The last I can remember is Cyprus. There was a large payment to have a child. Not sure how it worked out.
Ireland still sucks up to the Catholic Church by only giving a tax break if you are officially married. They could, extend that to registered couples but haven't.
The other obvious thing is that immigration is not the answer. If it's workers paying tax, then that's great but I believe that there is not even a net tax contribution once families are brought over. The clear solution would be short term working visas and no family visas. Work for a couple of years, pay tax and save then go home richer.

In china they reward new mothers and fathers for increasing the birth rate with newborns. Over here we are importing grown up ones and giving them money.

 

[Stirlingsays]

This is who Macron choose to cut bread with and give major power to so he could thwart the normal path of democracy and keep the far more popular Le Pen out of power.

The guy's a Maoist, a literal communist.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887811772112937023

 

[PalazioVecchio]

This is who Macron choose to cut bread with and give major power to so he could thwart the normal path of democracy and keep the far more popular Le Pen out of power.

The guy's a Maoist, a literal communist.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887811772112937023

They have already finished the job in France. Certainly in football terms.

Next, these commies would like to do Christian Poland & Hungary. All i can say to them is 'good luck with that'

 

[Stirlingsays]

It's a good visual summary of the EU.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1888909657256722820