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Israel v Iran

kevlee said:
What’s makes anyone think that Iran wants a western democracy?
Iraq didn’t, nor did Libya or Syria…
They are a strict Islamic state and always will be .
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You are correct but I don't believe that is the goal. You would need boots on the ground for this and that's unlikely under the Trump administration as he has stated many times.
 
He's not correct. They have been under a brutal regime of 1 leader. Doesn't mean it's what is wanted or normal or anything. Name a country where the majority population WANTS a hardline regime to arrive? They usually don't know what is coming, can't do anything about it or they've been lied to.

Before that overthrow Iran had a lot of liberty, a quick google and image search shows that clearly.
 
Spindle said:
He's not correct. They have been under a brutal regime of 1 leader. Doesn't mean it's what is wanted or normal or anything. Name a country where the majority population WANTS a hardline regime to arrive? They usually don't know what is coming, can't do anything about it or they've been lied to.

Before that overthrow Iran had a lot of liberty, a quick google and image search shows that clearly.
Click to expand...
Ok- show me a country where the west has taken out a strict Islamic dictator and it’s worked ?
 
I have no reason not to believe that Iran is not that different to Turkey is terms of religiousness.

It has a percent of highly religious in its rural areas but most of the young urban will be more western centric.

People often make the mistake of thinking in binary terms because they get use to just seeing the face of the regime.

Foreigners see Starmer and think that because I'm English I'm not angry about grooming gangs and mass immigration because the left and the Tories before them deliberately ignored it and insulted......and persecuted anyone outside the mainstream who shouted about it.
 
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Hrolf The Ganger said:
There's no doubt that the aftermath of Iraq and Libya was far from ideal. The US protects its interests but doesn't seem too bothered about the aftermath. Is it method or madness? History will tell.
Israel is doing us a favour by attacking Iran. They want to survive and grow. Netanyahu is either a villain or a hero, depending on your point of view. Either way, he is on our side as far as it goes.
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They are breaking all that 'international law', security council and the other b0llocks all these clowns went on about for years to justify wars.

We heard little else during the neo con wars and now when it's inconvenient it's barely mentioned.

I don't support this because I'm not a neo con.....unfortunately Trump is.....after lying about it. I also think it's the wrong chosen path for Israel's best interests....but it's a garden path they have gone down.

All the hot heads seem to think that this is going to end well......I don't see it myself. But I certainly hope they are right and I'm wrong.

But I as I've said for many years on the forum.....I don't support starting wars that I'm not personally prepared to fight in......Personally, I think lots of old men just like seeing sh1t burn because it costs them nothing......Well it does but it's hidden costs not overtly plain to them.
 
Spindle said:
He's not correct. They have been under a brutal regime of 1 leader. Doesn't mean it's what is wanted or normal or anything. Name a country where the majority population WANTS a hardline regime to arrive? They usually don't know what is coming, can't do anything about it or they've been lied to.

Before that overthrow Iran had a lot of liberty, a quick google and image search shows that clearly.
Click to expand...

I'm no expert on Iran and don't have a crystal ball, but from what I have read, the country would strongly block a Western style regime change if the Supreme Leader was toppled.

Most of Iran's political elites (including the moderates) are suspicious of Western interference. The stigma of the 1953 coup is still in the national memory. The regime has built ultra strong defences: The Revolutionary Guard; intelligence networks, state media and the religious leaders.

The people want independence first, democracy second. In the long term it could happen as the country has a young, well educated population. The recent-ish uprisings show there is appetite for change but sadly the system appears too strong for a short to medium term break. We will see how it pans out...
 
kevlee said:
What’s makes anyone think that Iran wants a western democracy?
Iraq didn’t, nor did Libya or Syria…
They are a strict Islamic state and always will be .
Click to expand...
Well they weren’t a strict Islamic State before the previous regime change but I do agree that it is very difficult to see them reverting to pre 1979 Iran
 
Penge Eagle said:
I'm no expert on Iran and don't have a crystal ball, but from what I have read, the country would strongly block a Western style regime change if the Supreme Leader was toppled.

Most of Iran's political elites (including the moderates) are suspicious of Western interference. The stigma of the 1953 coup is still in the national memory. The regime has built ultra strong defences: The Revolutionary Guard; intelligence networks, state media and the religious leaders.

The people want independence first, democracy second. In the long term it could happen as the country has a young, well educated population. The uprisings show there is appetite for change but sadly the system appears is too strong for a short to medium term change. We will see how it pans out...
Click to expand...
Iran has 3 power bases who have their own agendas which sometimes conflict. So Iran's political leaders may negotiate a deal (release of a foreign prisoner) which is ignored by the Revolutionary Guard.

1. The Ayatollahs
2. The Revolutionary Guard (army)
3. The President / Parliament (weakest of the 3)

Any regime change will see these 3 groups at each others throats, my money being on the Revolutionary Guard as they have the weapons.
 
Croydon Red said:
The only side Netanyahu is on is his own. Everything he does is purely to keep himself in power and out of court.
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Yes and no.

He isn't faking being right wing and pro western and that's what Hrolf means.

But in terms of the timing of this....I tend to agree with you.

He's looking for a hail mary way out....it's quite dangerous really but seen many times in history.
 
Penge Eagle said:
I'm no expert on Iran and don't have a crystal ball, but from what I have read, the country would strongly block a Western style regime change if the Supreme Leader was toppled.

Most of Iran's political elites (including the moderates) are suspicious of Western interference. The stigma of the 1953 coup is still in the national memory. The regime has built ultra strong defences: The Revolutionary Guard; intelligence networks, state media and the religious leaders.

The people want independence first, democracy second. In the long term it could happen as the country has a young, well educated population. The recent-ish uprisings show there is appetite for change but sadly the system appears too strong for a short to medium term break. We will see how it pans out...
Click to expand...

I'd agree with a lot of that.

Given time I think the regime would be toppled simply due to the changing demographics of the youth in a modern world.....not fully western as in the Shah days but their own version.

However decades of sanctions mean that the pro western girls in your earlier post won't be minded to think that the west are their friends.

They have been attacked, people not in the regime will have died and they will pull together and a large groundswell will support the only system available to them that fights back....That's what usually happens.
 
kevlee said:
Ok- show me a country where the west has taken out a strict Islamic dictator and it’s worked ?
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Imagine being so wrapped up in hating the west that you say something like the above.


Human rights violations during the Gaddafi regime - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

euaa.europa.eu

Crimes committed during the regime of Saddam Hussein

The European Union Agency for Asylum - EUAA is an agency of the European Union mandated with supporting Member States in applying the package of EU laws that governs asylum and international protection.
euaa.europa.eu euaa.europa.eu
 
Penge Eagle said:
I'm no expert on Iran and don't have a crystal ball, but from what I have read, the country would strongly block a Western style regime change if the Supreme Leader was toppled.

Most of Iran's political elites (including the moderates) are suspicious of Western interference. The stigma of the 1953 coup is still in the national memory. The regime has built ultra strong defences: The Revolutionary Guard; intelligence networks, state media and the religious leaders.

The people want independence first, democracy second. In the long term it could happen as the country has a young, well educated population. The recent-ish uprisings show there is appetite for change but sadly the system appears too strong for a short to medium term break. We will see how it pans out...
Click to expand...

I've not requested one. But we want one that doesn't have an ideology of global terrorism
 
Badger11 said:
Iran has 3 power bases who have their own agendas which sometimes conflict. So Iran's political leaders may negotiate a deal (release of a foreign prisoner) which is ignored by the Revolutionary Guard.

1. The Ayatollahs
2. The Revolutionary Guard (army)
3. The President / Parliament (weakest of the 3)

Any regime change will see these 3 groups at each others throats, my money being on the Revolutionary Guard as they have the weapons.
Click to expand...

There's also the army, which isn't the IRG
 
Spindle said:
How the hell would we do it? Airstrikes leading to a massive launch of their missiles into Tel Aviv?? Israel had hundreds of people on the ground embedded inside Iran with hundreds of drones and small missile systems ready to go in a simultaneous strike. They took a hell of a lot out in one go on the ground as well as the air.

Here's a decent video of a some of the methods they used, it's just not something that the USA or UK would be set up to do.

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I can't disagree and you might be right! However I am skeptical about using as an historical source to what appears to be an IDF funded/made film. Not without a great deal of caution.

And I have connections in the military who have been training intensively for years to fight Iran. Do you honestly think we don't have embedded commandos? Do you not think our intelligence is comprehensive with Mossad gleefully sharing to fill any gaps? Military victory would be swift and embarrassingly one sided.

No, it's what follows that causes the West to pause.
 
Spiderman said:
Well they weren’t a strict Islamic State before the previous regime change but I do agree that it is very difficult to see them reverting to pre 1979 Iran
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God forbid! The Shah was a brutal autocrat in the mould of Assad who the West nobly propped up in return for a cheap flow of oil. Media presentation followed the standard Cold War model.

Assad - supported by Russia = evil.
Shah- supported by West = good.

But you are right about the square peg of forcing Western democracy on any country in that region. However there are models of countries that adopt a form of government more natural to local culture that work for them. Oman. Jordan. Hardly Scandinavia, but stable, quietly getting on with life and a long way down Amnesty International's hit list. Would not the West and most Iranians bite your hands off for that?
 
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