Labour Party politics

Save Dwindlehurst said:
Problem is that Burnham will soon be in the same position as Starmer. That is unable to do anything about the welfare bill and mass immigration because of the intransigence of his backbenchers. He will soon have to keep taxing and spending to keep the country afloat. Will be an impotent figurehead by the time of the next election.
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You do know the numbers have come right down under Labour?

The welfare bill, agreed, but attack where the facts support it.

Reform would have to tax and spend to keep the country afloat. There are no easy alternatives.

Starmer went for 2 reasons.

1. Analogue in a digital world. He is not a modern political animal.
2. Diminishing money in the pocket; no short term prospect of there being any more.
 
Spiderman said:
Surely, apart from him, every other Labour MP were part of a manifesto pledge? You know the one they got elected on, should be a GE now. I don’t know what they are scared of, if one held now, they would probably win albeit with a reduced majority.
Dont forget when Tories were changing leaders like there was no tomorrow, Labour were bleating about having a GE
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Parliamentary democracy not presidential. No need for a GE if he sticks to the mandate.

When Labour bleated about it, they were also wrong.
 
Badger11 said:
No doubt. It wouldn't surprise me if the media were hanging onto to stuff about him.

1. Let Burnham get rid of Starmer
2. Release dirt on Burnham that could have been done months ago.

I once worked with a guy who was a big Everton fan. His mate was a Sun journalist and claimed they had a story about an Evetron player being gay but they couldn't release it because the player had done nothing wrong e.g. cheating on spouse.

I don't know how true that story was by it rings true. We have all seen many times how public figures skeleton's come to life just at the right time (for the media).
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You really know some dirt, I can see you with a hair net in the snug with Minnie Caldwell, Ena Sharples and Martha Longhurst. I bet your fun after half of mild. 😉
 
silvertop said:
Parliamentary democracy not presidential. No need for a GE if he sticks to the mandate.

When Labour bleated about it, they were also wrong.
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Problem is that the mandate is destroying them. Starmer won a massive majority. And yet has had to still go. It's simply not worked.

Burnham simply has to try something completely different.

Now I get your point about how, technically, he does not have to call a GE. But I cannot see how he can just slip into a 'business as normal' routine. That has been the problem.

Something drastic is called for. Now whether that drastic action will reverse the decline that many many people clearly think of as reality, will happen, needs to be seen but the populace clearly want it.

Burnham was perhaps the single Labour personality who could have won that election. Question is will he still be able to do similar in 6 months without actually putting his personal stamp on things? Because if the answer is a resounding 'no', then Labour's wider position has not changed.
 
Burnham will want interest rates down ,a big drop in unemployment, much closer ties with the E.U. Favourites to win the next G.E. on Oddschecker. 😉 😉 😉
 
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beak said:
Burnham will want interest rates down ,a big drop in unemployment, much closer ties with the E.U.
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He can want all of those things but which is actually deliverable? The first two are quite literally out of his hands as I see it. The third...maybe.

But define 'closer'.

Reform still lead in the polls. Labour MP's fear losing their seats. How does this help Labour? Unless its done on the back of a full on reversal policy, put forward as a Manifesto pledge which would in turn bringing with it tactical voting from the likes of the Lib-Dems and so on. Just like he got in his recent victory.

Sure, Labour might have a lower majority BUT with a GE win, another 5 years and Reform facing the headwind.
 
beak said:
Burnham will want interest rates down ,a big drop in unemployment, much closer ties with the E.U.
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The Prime Minister does not control interest rates. Unemployment will remain high if he keep bunging layabouts handouts and taxing businesses excessively. Rejoining the EU or closer shackling to it will be disastrous.
 
Matov said:
Problem is that the mandate is destroying them. Starmer won a massive majority. And yet has had to still go. It's simply not worked.

Burnham simply has to try something completely different.

Now I get your point about how, technically, he does not have to call a GE. But I cannot see how he can just slip into a 'business as normal' routine. That has been the problem.

Something drastic is called for. Now whether that drastic action will reverse the decline that many many people clearly think of as reality, will happen, needs to be seen but the populace clearly want it.

Burnham was perhaps the single Labour personality who could have won that election. Question is will he still be able to do similar in 6 months without actually putting his personal stamp on things? Because if the answer is a resounding 'no', then Labour's wider position has not changed.
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Absolutely right (crikey Matov, are we agreeing?).

But Burnham has something Starmer lacked. Political charisma. In a sound bite crypto world, that is all that matters. Sad, I know.

Thus, Burnham is much more able to deliver the same mandate but spin it as success.

Truthfully, there were notable failures under Starmer he will need to mask, like the welfare budget, debt, disposable income, NEETs etc. However, there are also successes in the face of awful external shocks like his lead against Russia, his securing huge Chinese business for the City, inflation down, falling illegal immigration etc. that the media has masked as it does not fit the anti Starmer narrative.

Gloss and sell. The Tories are masters at it and Blair borrowed heavily from them. Starmer was always too principled and naive. And that has brought him down.
 
Matov said:
He can want all of those things but which is actually deliverable? The first two are quite literally out of his hands as I see it. The third...maybe.

But define 'closer'.

Reform still lead in the polls. Labour MP's fear losing their seats. How does this help Labour? Unless its done on the back of a full on reversal policy, put forward as a Manifesto pledge which would in turn bringing with it tactical voting from the likes of the Lib-Dems and so on. Just like he got in his recent victory.

Sure, Labour might have a lower majority BUT with a GE win, another 5 years and Reform facing the headwind.
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Starmer is 100% Remain.

Not sure about Burnham?

However, Starmer cozied up to the EU while vehemently denying we were reversing Brexit.

Burnham also knows it is the third rail.

"Closer" would have to be very carefully managed to ensure we secure some benefit but without handing any advantage to the populist right.
 
silvertop said:
Burnham also knows it is the third rail.

"Closer" would have to be very carefully managed to ensure we secure some benefit but without handing any advantage to the populist right.
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For me, the issue is that Burnham needs to push a 'change' agenda because that is clearly what the mood demands. And what can he actually change? He will become leader on the back of the fears of Labour MP's about losing to Reform. Sure, everything might be roses for the next few months but it will not take much for it to switch back once the time moves on.

I increasingly think Burnham will be looking to go for an early GE on the back of these concerns. He will know he has no real agency over the UK economy for reasons hashed out else where. And that tactical voting against Reform got him over the line in Makerfield.

Goes to the country on the back of a manifesto promise of trying to take us back into the EU and its a straight forward fight between him and Reform. And that tactical voting from Lib Dems and Greens, all of whom are EU Twinks, gives him and many other MP's an advantage. Not saying he will but they must be considering it.
 
silvertop said:
Truthfully, there were notable failures under Starmer he will need to mask, like the welfare budget, debt, disposable income, NEETs etc. However, there are also successes in the face of awful external shocks like his lead against Russia, his securing huge Chinese business for the City, inflation down, falling illegal immigration etc. that the media has masked as it does not fit the anti Starmer narrative.
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For me the single biggest issue that proved Starmer was simply not fit for Government was the decision about Mandleson. It simply beggered belief, in the face of what was publicily known (and god knows what the secret stuff told them) to appoint Mandleson as Ambassador to Bongo-Bongo Land, let alone the US. Beyond insane.

And maybe Burnhams charisma will save the day with no major policy changes? But none of it means he can turn the tide of public opinion in the face of the insanity of the current (non) border policy and another Southport or Henry Novak situation. Which is going to happen before Christmas at the latest.

Burnham might be the poster boy as things stand and in a Northern constituency but does that alone stand the test of the current reality of the UK? Charisma can only get you so far when a load of little girls are stabbed to death in a dance class or a 18 year old kid is stabbed to death and the Old Bill decide to arrest him for making the pavement messy in the process because he might have been less that courteous to the brown person who stuck the knife in him.

Burnham needs a soap-box to stand on. And one that gets him tactical anti-reform voters in the process. And the longer time goes on, the riskier that becomes for him if he wants to actually hold on to the job beyond the next GE.

All politicans once they become PM's crave legacy. And they get that by calling a GE whilst PM and winning it. That is the next box on their wish list.
 
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