War in Ukraine

[Stirlingsays]

I don't see a successful nuclear strike on any NATO country happening without retaliation. A single nuke unanswered would only mean more coming our way.

My hope is that Europe is playing bad cop while Trump tries to end the conflict. The difficulty is that Ukraine is losing the war and is in an increasingly weak position to negotiate. The West cannot show weakness, but at the same time cannot escalate. A tricky position.

Either Putin settles and we dial everything back, or Ukraine falls, followed by a huge build up of hardware and troops either side of the NATO borders. We will then be spending a fortune on military upgrade and likely bringing back national service. Europe will become home to thousands more US troops to back up the local forces and we will be in Cold War x10.

Putin could go early and attack Poland, but that would potentially leave Russia open to the full force of US capability. I cannot see the US leaving Europe undefended. What ever the politics, any conventional war would find its way back to European soil at some stage. Defending it early would give the US time to wind up its war machine.
If it goes nuclear, we are all dead anyway. Problem over. Nobody wins.

Do we really think that Putin would send us back to the stone age just to prove a point?

Personally I think Putin would go nuclear only if he thought it was existential for Russia, that's written up in their usage terms anyway.

I can't see Russia attacking Poland, I don't see them entering western Ukraine, maybe central Ukraine if a peace deal isn't made, but the further into western Ukraine they go the harder it gets.

Ukraine is massive and Russia have taken only about just under 25 percent of it. Its manpower is mostly beaten in terms of fighting on all fronts but it still has a lot of drones.

What I do see as a threat to the Ukraine remaining as a state is if Russia take Odessa, their port city.

If Russia decide to take that it's curtains.....it's pretty much curtains anyway but Ukraine's ability to make money would be practically cut in half.

It's while a peace deal is so important before that looks likely because after Russia take the Donbas remaining (6 months at most) and the few bits remaining in the north they are likely to turn their attention to Odessa and I would be highly surprised if Europe let that happen....costs go up.

So I expect realistic peace terms at some point before that looks likely.....it's either that or Europe will fight. Russia understand that Odessa is leverage and so I think peace is possible then.

But let's hope that we can get peace now rather than later.

 

[silvertop]

Err ......I didn't mention the Danes ....or use the word 'possibly'

But since you have, it's not true what you say.
True, it wasn't an Eastern Front 4 year bloodbath (which some of us seem to relish).
But plenty of shots were fired and a fair few on both sides lost their lives in the fighting
You should watch the Danish film 'April 9th Invasion Day'
View attachment 2418

My tongue was in cheek.

This film is somewhat revisionist. A better film is The Bombardment but let us not deviate. The Danes put up internal resistance but their army capitulated very quickly. And garrison troops really did "invade" by passenger train.

However, a point I could (and on reflection should) have made relates to those referring to how awful the Ukrainians are (neo fascist, corrupt) and why we should care about supporting them. The Polish government invaded by the Germans (whose resistance you refer to in positive terms) were also no saints. A corrupt military junta. An inconvenient fact of that war. Yet I am sure nobody now doubts the value of our pact with them and decision to go to war.

I am not saying the Brits should go to war to protect Ukraine. However, I believe we were right to fight a proxy war through Ukraine to check Russian expansion objectives. A settlement will be reached which gives them their buffer against NATO through the Donbas; NATO their buffer against Russia through the rest of Ukraine; and Russia will have learnt by bloody nose not to push any further west.

A pity for Ukraine, but looking at matters coldly, geopolitically good value.

 

[McAhuna]

My tongue was in cheek.

This film is somewhat revisionist. A better film is The Bombardment but let us not deviate. The Danes put up internal resistance but their army capitulated very quickly. And garrison troops really did "invade" by passenger train.

However, a point I could (and on reflection should) have made relates to those referring to how awful the Ukrainians are (neo fascist, corrupt) and why we should care about supporting them. The Polish government invaded by the Germans (whose resistance you refer to in positive terms) were also no saints. A corrupt military junta. An inconvenient fact of that war. Yet I am sure nobody now doubts the value of our pact with them and decision to go to war.

I am not saying the Brits should go to war to protect Ukraine. However, I believe we were right to fight a proxy war through Ukraine to check Russian expansion objectives. A settlement will be reached which gives them their buffer against NATO through the Donbas; NATO their buffer against Russia through the rest of Ukraine; and Russia will have learnt by bloody nose not to push any further west.

A pity for Ukraine, but looking at matters coldly, geopolitically good value.

It sounds like you are in favour of a peace settlement in Ukraine, so on that we can agree.

I wouldn't describe it as good value, more a futile and tragic waste that the confrontation was allowed to get to this stage.

A lot of European allies in WW2 were no saints, Poland included. An overlooked quirk is that our allies included at least one fascist dictatorship (Greece) and Germany's allies included at least one liberal democracy (Finland).

With Ukraine, we have talked on here about the corruption and the Nazism. But Ukraine is also an international centre for human-trafficking, organ-harvesting and bio-weapons research.
In short, I am fairly confident they trump 1930s Poland on the evil scale.

 

[Stirlingsays]

I am not saying the Brits should go to war to protect Ukraine. However, I believe we were right to fight a proxy war through Ukraine to check Russian expansion objectives. A settlement will be reached which gives them their buffer against NATO through the Donbas; NATO their buffer against Russia through the rest of Ukraine; and Russia will have learnt by bloody nose not to push any further west.

A pity for Ukraine, but looking at matters coldly, geopolitically good value.

I think to justify that you have to completely ignore 2014 and what led up to it and after and believe that 2022 happened out of nowhere because Putin was bored and wanted a war......despite having stated that Ukraine was his redline many times prior.

Sacrificing Ukraine? I'm against European wars for neocons in Washington.....Like with WW2, they won everything.....and we get fecked, no lube....They eliminated Nordstream, stopped the economic Germany/Russia relationship they fear and now sell Europe their energy while soon to be economically trading back with Russia again....all while selling us their weapons full price and leaving us the bill for Ukraine.

There was once a day where Great Britain was ruled by people with brains.....but that's probably not since the Victorians.

Ever feel like you're been....

 

[silvertop]

It sounds like you are in favour of a peace settlement in Ukraine, so on that we can agree.

I wouldn't describe it as good value, more a futile and tragic waste that the confrontation was allowed to get to this stage.

A lot of European allies in WW2 were no saints, Poland included. An overlooked quirk is that our allies included at least one fascist dictatorship (Greece) and Germany's allies included at least one liberal democracy (Finland).

With Ukraine, we have talked on here about the corruption and the Nazism. But Ukraine is also an international centre for human-trafficking, organ-harvesting and bio-weapons research.
In short, I am fairly confident they trump 1930s Poland on the evil scale.

I could not agree more.

I differ with those who place culpability on the West. We could have done more. Things could have been very different. But the West did not invade Ukraine. And nobody held a gun to Putin's head to leave him no choice.

The waste was caused by Russia; and the West had to deal with it.

History will tell whether we acted wisely and proportionately.

 

[Stirlingsays]

You can't help some people.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

Personally I think Putin would go nuclear only if he thought it was existential for Russia, that's written up in their usage terms anyway.

I can't see Russia attacking Poland, I don't see them entering western Ukraine, maybe central Ukraine if a peace deal isn't made, but the further into western Ukraine they go the harder it gets.

Ukraine is massive and Russia have taken only about just under 25 percent of it. Its manpower is mostly beaten in terms of fighting on all fronts but it still has a lot of drones.

What I do see as a threat to the Ukraine remaining as a state is if Russia take Odessa, their port city.

If Russia decide to take that it's curtains.....it's pretty much curtains anyway but Ukraine's ability to make money would be practically cut in half.

It's while a peace deal is so important before that looks likely because after Russia take the Donbas remaining (6 months at most) and the few bits remaining in the north they are likely to turn their attention to Odessa and I would be highly surprised if Europe let that happen....costs go up.

So I expect realistic peace terms at some point before that looks likely.....it's either that or Europe will fight. Russia understand that Odessa is leverage and so I think peace is possible then.

But let's hope that we can get peace now rather than later.

That's just about right.

I don't think the West is interested in defeating Russia. Only in defending itself. If Russia is ever under threat, it would be of its own doing. The lines are drawn. Putin can keep his little empire as long as he understands the consequences of invading a NATO country.

That is why Europe is talking tough. They are not as confident as you that Putin will stop at Ukraine. Even so, they are still only making noises and not doing enough to strengthen our fighting capability.

Putin cannot invade a country and then accuse Europe or warmongering. He is playing mind games.
If he is determined to start a wider conflict, then we can't stop that.
If he wants to come out of this in one piece and claim victory, he will agree to peace when he has taken what he came for.

I hope for all of our sakes that Putin knows when to stop.

 

[Spindle]

Looks like we'll be getting the first nuke.

At this point it kind of feels like we deserve it
View attachment 2416

Traitor

 

[Spindle]

The last tests on our deterrent failed.

Oh and I've rather not have my family destroyed over a dick measuring contest.....If you are wrong you don't get anymore negative consequences than anyone else because we are all dead.

Over a fecking war between slavs.

1. I've not seen a nuclear war.
2.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy84q2d25e5t

They can't even get them to launch

 

[McAhuna]

Traitor

LoL.
Just think - You can marvel at the military tech as it approaches, and find joy in the knowledge that a rusty Trident will be winding up to misfire into Siberia.

 

[Rudi Hedman]

As nothing of this long winded diatribe addresses the actual point, why didn’t you simply agree that you would prefer to live under Putin and save us all a lot of time?

Criticism of me is neither the subject nor does it explain how any deal, at any time, involving Putin can possibly be trusted.

At least the Islamic takeover wouldn’t be happening.

 

[Spindle]

LoL.
Just think - You can marvel at the military tech as it approaches, and find joy in the knowledge that a rusty Trident will be winding up to misfire into Siberia.

Trident is American and the UK is embarking on making a ballistic missile. Also, I don't marvel, I help create these weapons (in my case it's the defensive ones).

You should thank me.

 

[Stirlingsays]

Trident is American and the UK is embarking on making a ballistic missile. Also, I don't marvel, I help create these weapons (in my case it's the defensive ones).

You should thank me.

All this is required.

Fighting wars that are in our interests is what's important though.

Our leaders are losers making poor decisions and loading us with ever higher debts.

 

[Wisbech Eagle]

Your proxies, not mine.

I don't engage in losing wars because of 'feels' and virtue signalling.

People with your politics are a disaster.

You should be paying my energy bill.

Maybe I am. I pay a lot of tax. At 81 I draw pensions but remain self employed. You have never mentioned what your work is. Only what your work once was. As you seem to spend every waking hour, and half the hours most people are sleeping, pontificating here where any time for working would come from is difficult to imagine.

 

[Wisbech Eagle]

At least the Islamic takeover wouldn’t be happening.

Rest easy. It isn’t.

 

[Wisbech Eagle]

That's just about right.

I don't think the West is interested in defeating Russia. Only in defending itself. If Russia is ever under threat, it would be of its own doing. The lines are drawn. Putin can keep his little empire as long as he understands the consequences of invading a NATO country.

That is why Europe is talking tough. They are not as confident as you that Putin will stop at Ukraine. Even so, they are still only making noises and not doing enough to strengthen our fighting capability.

Putin cannot invade a country and then accuse Europe or warmongering. He is playing mind games.
If he is determined to start a wider conflict, then we can't stop that.
If he wants to come out of this in one piece and claim victory, he will agree to peace when he has taken what he came for.

I hope for all of our sakes that Putin knows when to stop.

I agree with this.

NATO has no purpose other than to defend its members territory. Putin’s claims of needing to protect Russia’s western border from NATO is bs. It’s an excuse for his own aggression. No western country has any desire to expand east. Sure they would like those countries that were part of the Soviet Union to consolidate their transition to being part of the western world but that’s different and that’s what Putin really wants to stop. He has never accepted the break up of the Soviet Union.

 

[Rudi Hedman]

Rest easy. It isn’t.

When you climb into your Morris Minor to the bowls club and back near Truro your experience will be very different to that of many of us. You have no idea. But you don’t care anyway as expected do it wouldn’t bother you if you really knew.

 

[Stirlingsays]

Maybe I am. I pay a lot of tax. At 81 I draw pensions but remain self employed. You have never mentioned what your work is. Only what your work once was. As you seem to spend every waking hour, and half the hours most people are sleeping, pontificating here where any time for working would come from is difficult to imagine.

No you don't.

Your politics....and that's only that which you expose on this board, has not only damaged this country but continues to cost it to the tune of billions....utter wastrel.

As for your obsession with my work status, mind your own business I've stated I'm not unemployed and actually what I do matters.....what you do only matters to you.

 

[McAhuna]

I wonder if Putin has a big one targeted on Truro?

My fear is he thinks it's not worth bothering with.

 

[Stirlingsays]

I wonder if Putin has a big one targeted on Truro?

My fear is he thinks it's not worth bothering with.

We hope only health and fitness for our Cornish nationalist.

Though if Putin did drop a nuke on him I doubt he would even notice as he blows hard every day anyway.