silvertop
Member
- Location
- Portishead
- Country
England
One of the reasons Hussein was such a tyrant was because Iraq was never a happy cohesive whole. He had to rule with an iron fist to keep it together. Of course, he went far too far, but you get the point.I think he miscalculated.
To get this done he has to install a puppet, which means troops on the ground.
Any other choice just leads to even his own side regarding it as a terrible decision.
If he bombs and then leaves it, he's just spent a load of money for nothing and installed a more radical leader.....who no doubt will regard a nuke as existential.
If they want to avoid that they have to install a puppet and maintain it.
Bad, bad decision.
I know It sounds fantastical but looking forward I can see Israel nuking Iran.
As others have pointed out, Iran also has tribal issues. One autocracy replaced another in 1979; and they have since also held that nation together through awful, despotic means.
Replace the current leader with a Western puppet without local mandate and I predict a destructive unraveling that will have far-reaching implications in addition to the appalling cost of achieving it.