I have been thinking about where this leaves us. Both me personally and in a wider sense. Which is a big subject that won’t be clear until it’s over, especially when the only predictable thing about Trump is that he is unpredictable.
Nevertheless several things strike me. Firstly he isn’t President for another couple of months. Biden is. Until yesterday Biden was a lame duck. Now he isn’t. He is a President who doesn’t care about the personal implications of any executive decisions he takes. He won’t be running again and nor will Harris. They are both finished politically. Biden is also protected by the Supreme Court ruling on Presidential immunity from prosecution for official acts.
So this could be the most important 2 months of Biden’s presidency as he puts in place safeguards to protect against Trump’s worst intentions. They have months to prepare for this scenario so everything ought to be oiled and ready to go.
Likewise with Ukraine. I expect there to have been detailed plans drawn up between the Biden administration, NATO and its members on how to respond if Trump won. Zelenskyy would have been involved too, obviously. In anticipation of Trump pulling the rug from further US provision of support I wonder if Ukraine will now cede the territory that Russia said they sought, pull their forces back and announce a ceasefire. A deal that neither Trump nor Putin could refuse without losing face. Ukraine would encourage all those unhappy to be left in Russian hands to relocate with the EU, and the UK, offering to accept refugees.
Alongside that NATO to offer Ukraine membership, but without putting men or equipment there, and the EU to do the same. It could result in Trump pulling the US out of NATO but hopefully his military would persuade him not to and NATO would doubtless have a notice period and after 4 years Trump goes anyway.
It’s all , of course, speculation so we must see. Maybe it would be announced on the day of the inauguration, thus keeping everyone off balance.
There is also the fact that any President doesn’t control everything. Much decision making is still done at State level.
On a personal level with Trump expected to start a trade war not only with China but with the EU and ourselves there is likely to be significant economic consequences. A recession is possible and interest rate rises of 2% or 3% forecasted. This shouldn’t hurt me too badly. I don’t have any debt, don’t consume so much, have a respectable income and interest bearing investments. Trump could be good for me personally.
If Trump does go fully isolationist then the EU is going to have to accept it can no longer shelter under the protection of the US. Nor will we be able to. The EU and the UK will find themselves in the same boat again. So maybe Trump’s success will end up being the precursor of us rejoining the EU?
There’s always a silver lining on even the darkest of days.