The chances of producing a first team player through the youth team/academy have always been very slim, the number that make it alone tell you that.
Other factors have increasingly come into play, however.
1. The better our team, the harder it is for a youth player to get in. Being in the premier league requires a better academy, and premier league success allows us to invest more in it, yet having successful premier league team makes it less likely the academy will produce a first team player.
2. The idea that a sold youth player is 'pure profit' for FFP/SCR turns an academy into a factory for the marketplace. It also seems to make it more likely we sign a kid from abroad and sell one we produced than the other way around. Doesn't come up that often, but in borderline cases the system is tilted against the home grown player. Madness.
3. We don't make space for youth products, instead we actively block the pathways. I'm the first to say that a kid has to be good enough and that very few are, so I don't have unrealistic expectations. That said, we increasingly sign youthful promise from other countries after only a handful of games. Hopefully Gozo turns out great, but he's not expected to play right now. Someone like Guessand was re signed on loan as cover even though he'd been very average last year. Why not just have Drakes-Thomas as the cover player? How does either signing allow him to develop? Or even give him hope and focus? Canvot was little more than an untried kid when we signed him, he still has a very long way to go. Did we really have nobody comparable in the building? I know it was years before, but we let O'Brian go and he'd be a big upgrade on Canvot.
The third point is the one that gets me. Traditionally , the club could invest heavily in the youth set up but have to accept it if the manager didn't rate the youth players enough to pick them. Squad composition was the managers domain, after all, and there were only so many spaces.
Nowadays that's not really the case. It's the club that puts the squad together. It could choose to leave gaps, but has instead opted to block them.