You can’t ask “How has it gone so wrong?” without also asking “How the hell did it last this long and go so well?”, because the two are connected.
Start with the context:
The idea we should have ‘kicked on’ at any stage is wrong. Consider the economics. Each year the teams above you get more money than you, so clubs who have better teams than yours get to strengthen more than you do. With each year, their advantage over you gets greater.
It is natural to want ‘progress’, but to say we should aim for 15th for a few years, then 12th for a few more, then for the top 8, and on and on is ignorant of basic financial logic. We cannot ‘kick on’. Long term mid table is as good as it gets, and not just for Palace, but for Fulham, Bournemouth, Brentford, and so on. Brighton are the media darlings, but they are the epitome of accepting your mid-table place by setting yourself up as a feeder club. The best model to follow to get to the EPL is also the most self-limiting once you get there.
That said…
As the teams above us get further from reach, so too do we get further away from those beneath us. Hence, we can cherry-pick the best players from QPR, Reading, Blackburn, Millwall etc in a way we could never have done if we were in the Championship.
The end result? The potential for a permanent status quo.
It seems to me that once a club establishes themselves in premier league mid-table, they could stay there forever. Buy good young players from those below you, get good years out of them, sell them to the big boys. This weakens the teams below you, strengthens those above, and keeps you right in the middle.
To me, what Palace are ‘guilty’ of, if anything, is trying to find a little wriggle-room in all this.
We knew we were always going to sell assets like Guehi, Olise, Eze, Lacroix etc, not because we lack ambition, but because they would only sign for us on that basis, and would not sign new contracts past a certain point. The FA Cup final team was never going to be kept together. It was successful because everyone involved, from players to manager, wanted to use us as a stepping stone in the best way: Come here, do well, move on.
What Palace did was to try and keep the positive momentum going. We could have sold Guehi, Eze, and Mateta (who we did sell, let’s remember) and spent the money on five or six young hopefuls, weakening the team and beginning the cycle again. Be honest, though: How many of us would have moaned about that? We had a good team, had won a trophy, and were amongst the favourites to win in Europe. The club tried to go for it with the Johnson and JSL signings. You can add Nketiah, and perhaps Pino to that. We all raised an eyebrow at the fees, but very few of us thought they would be disasters as players. They were road-tested to some degree, and in their prime.
In other words, Palace stepped outside of their lane. They saw a one in a lifetime chance to go for it a bit. They tried to not be a feeder club for a change.
I think the same is true of appointing Sage rather than Dyche or Frank. Parish didn’t want the team to get that far then go back into its shell. He didn’t want us all to die wondering. He is, I think, still a bit of a dreamer in that way.
Ultimately, none of it has worked. In getting back into Europe we made our finances even tighter due to UEFA FFP, and had to sell Lacroix when we surely would have wanted to keep him for another year. We have bought too many average players in the hope of having squad depth, but then, how many on here would have moaned if we didn’t try to prepare for Europe? We bought young hopefuls like Khalili, Gozo, Osario etc when we needed senior pros, but developing and selling at a profit is the only way Palace can have any kind of transfer budget.
In hindsight, we should have battened down the hatches this summer and just gone back to basics it terms of managerial appointment, squad building, and general expectations. It’s easy to say that now, though. None of it was mad, or negligent. It just hasn't worked.
Anyway, I don’t think the damage is bound to be fatal. If a new manager gets into the players and they pick up 4 points from the next two games whilst playing coherently, everything will appear a bit more rosy. The promised land of 15th – 12th may beckon.
The key is probably in recognising the value of that mid-table place, the risks involved in trying to push on, and just how finely balanced everything is.
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