You see, I don't really think Israel's best way of dealing with Iran is by trying to destroy their enrichment program....because I highly doubt that's practically possible.
I think their most likely method would be overthrowing the regime....which I think is likely the real intent behind this.....How likely is that? It took years for Syria to fall mainly because Russia was supporting Assad. I guess we will find out.
Anyway the main reason I view it as unlikely that they can get at Iran's nuclear facility with missiles is from what Grok explains below......Does nukes change this picture? Don't know....Would that be sanctioned?
Gawd blimey.
Anyway here is the info on how protected Iran's nuclear set up is.
Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, particularly at Natanz and Fordow, are built deep underground to protect against airstrikes. Here’s a detailed breakdown based on available information up to June 14, 2025:
Natanz Nuclear Facility
- Depth: The underground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz is reported to be approximately 40–50 meters below ground, protected by a 7.6-meter-thick concrete shield. However, a new underground enrichment hall under Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā (Pickaxe Mountain) near Natanz is under construction, estimated to be 80–100 meters deep, with some sources suggesting it could exceed 100 meters and be heavily fortified with concrete.
- Missile Vulnerability: The existing FEP at Natanz (40–50 meters) was damaged by Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 ("Operation Rising Lion"), with the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) reportedly destroyed. However, the deeper new facility (80–100+ meters) is likely beyond the reach of U.S. GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, which can penetrate up to 60 meters of earth or 8–12 meters of concrete. Experts note that even using two MOPs in succession may not destroy such a deep site.
- Context: The new Natanz facility’s depth and fortification make it a significant challenge for conventional airstrikes, prompting concerns about Iran’s ability to protect its enrichment infrastructure. Posts on X highlight skepticism about U.S. and Israeli bombs reaching these depths.
Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant
- Depth: Fordow, located near Qom, is buried 80–90 meters under a mountain, with some estimates suggesting up to 295 feet (90 meters) of rock and reinforced concrete protection. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated it is nearly 800 meters under the surface, though this may refer to the mountain’s peak rather than the facility’s exact depth.
- Missile Vulnerability: Fordow is considered Iran’s most sheltered nuclear site, designed to be nearly impregnable to conventional airstrikes. The U.S. GBU-57 MOP is unlikely to penetrate Fordow’s depth, and Israel reportedly lacks bunker-busting bombs capable of reaching it. Experts suggest that only sabotage or targeting entryways and airshafts could disrupt operations, as airstrikes alone cannot destroy the facility. There are no confirmed reports of Fordow being hit in the June 2025 Israeli strikes, indicating its resilience.
- Context: Fordow’s depth and strategic importance (enriching uranium to 60% with advanced IR-6 centrifuges) make it a focal point for concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Its fortification reflects Iran’s long-term strategy to harden nuclear sites against military threats.
General Missile and Bomb Limitations
- U.S. Capabilities: The GBU-57 MOP, the U.S.’s most powerful conventional bunker-buster, can penetrate 60 meters of earth or 8–12 meters of concrete, but deeper facilities like Fordow and the new Natanz complex are likely beyond its reach. Posts on X emphasize that even U.S. B-2 bombers carrying MOPs may not suffice for Iran’s deepest sites.
- Israeli Capabilities: Israel’s bunker-busting bombs are less advanced than the U.S. MOP, and sources indicate Israel lacks the capability to destroy Fordow or the new Natanz facility with airstrikes alone. The June 2025 strikes damaged Natanz’s above-ground and shallower underground facilities but likely spared deeper infrastructure.
- Alternative Strategies: Experts suggest that targeting entry points, airshafts, or power supplies via sabotage or precision strikes could disrupt operations at deep facilities, as seen in past Israeli actions (e.g., Stuxnet cyberattack)