Reform

[HKOwen]

If its just a popularity contest then Farage will win. Binface does not have the same number of followers (at least on planet Earth). I have no idea whether Farage has done anything wrong (£5m untaxed gift or undeclared party donation etc) and doubt any of the voters know the truth either, we can all make a guess one way of the other. Popular does not always mean good. Most pop music is s***. Trump is popular in the US even though he is a serial rapist, liar and fraudster. I don't get all this us versus the establishment. Who are the establishment? From what we read the establishment appears to be some sort of communist monster trying to make the country gay and islamic. Most government workers are jobbing nobodies hoping for a nice pension and a Saga cruise at the end of their 30 years service. What does it matter anyway? We are all going to die in a few years in a ball of fire as the world temperatures reach critical mass.

I missed his rape convictions. Can you put a link so I can learn about them. What a crowd of shoemenders

 

[DanH]

If they feel they have been mistreated then then won't bother to vote, the language is simple, simple wriggling on a hook.

I didn't realise " used as pawns " was complimentary.

The only one wriggling is you trying to justify why you claimed I said something that I didn’t.

You can apologise and move on. You’ve only lost a little bit of face.

 

[silvertop]

They didn’t ask for this by-election. Nige called it to try and dodge the investigation.

Is that simple enough language for you?

I'm not sure that was the aim. I think it more of an attempt to make political capital out of the investigation into his affairs.

Personally, I do not have enough facts or knowledge of parliamentary rules to know whether he broke the rules (although folk on here have arrived at their own judgment based according to their political leaning). What occurred carries a bad odour, but that does not necessarily mean breach.

However, if he wins the election, he does not dodge the investigation. As an MP reinstated he is back on the hot seat. But this time it is different.

This time he can sit with a "mandate" and tell the establishment lackeys in parliament to do one or similar. If he is found to be in breach, he will claim stitch-up and his followers will actually swallow that.

More importantly, if his plan succeeds he will have increased popular support at a time when his star was very much descending. Largely, his in-out base who genuinely believe all that tosh about "establishment" "elites" and other fictitious tropes of populism (see up thread) will lap it all up with very little (if any) sensible scrutiny of detail.

That said, while his political strength will probably grow with the continued investigation (see Trump and the various court actions against him), he and his party are bound to do stuff to move the dial the other way given their innate and supernatural incompetence.

BTW, if the Bin wins, that will hardly be a victory for the "establishment".

 

[HKOwen]

Really? No other serious party is standing so the result is pretty meaningless.

If the turnout is less than 50%, which i suspect it will be, it shows how apathetic people are to politics in general, Farage included.

The turnout will reflect that other Westminster parties are not putting up candidates, it was in the news. The turnout in 2024 was 45,958 valid votes being 58.4%. 24,219 votes were Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. How can you say a turnout of less than 50% would be apathy.

Very uninformed comment.

I didn't know we had a psephologist on the board

 

[HKOwen]

The only one wriggling is you trying to justify why you claimed I said something that I didn’t.

You can apologise and move on. You’ve only lost a little bit of face.

When in doubt revert to Centurion mode

 

[Willo]

The turnout will reflect that other Westminster parties are not putting up candidates, it was in the news. The turnout in 2024 was 45,958 valid votes being 58.4%. 24,219 votes were Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. How can you say a turnout of less than 50% would be apathy.

Very uninformed comment.

I didn't know we had a psephologist on the board

Farage must secure more than 21,225 votes, the amount he secured in the 2024 General Election. Anything less than this and it will look as though the people of Clacton are beginning to tire of their 'Prodigal son'.
He must also secure a higher vote share than what Conservative Giles Watling amassed in 2019 ,which stood at 72 %. Only if both of these demands are met can the by-election be considered in any form a success. Anything less, and it looks more like a pyrrhic victory.

This was my rare foray into Politics on HOL, I am now gallivanting back to the football debates !

 

[Spindle]

I don’t live too far from Clacton, kids love it there. It’s a shame the residents are being used as pawns in a pointless petty political charade.

Do you think many of them wanted this by-election?

Bet you didn't say the same for Burnham

 

[DanH]

Bet you didn't say the same for Burnham

I literally have earlier in the thread.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

No one is arsed about this one man ego trip of a by-election.

Get back to parliament and face your scrutiny, Nige, ya massive fanny.

Trolling...

 

[silvertop]

Farage must secure more than 21,225 votes, the amount he secured in the 2024 General Election. Anything less than this and it will look as though the people of Clacton are beginning to tire of their 'Prodigal son'.
He must also secure a higher vote share than what Conservative Giles Watling amassed in 2019 ,which stood at 72 %. Only if both of these demands are met can the by-election be considered in any form a success. Anything less, and it looks more like a pyrrhic victory.

This was my rare foray into Politics on HOL, I am now gallivanting back to the football debates !

Many locals call him Nigel "Mirage" as he is never there, but spends his time politicking in the US.

I don't know if those "locals" voted for him last time.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

Farage must secure more than 21,225 votes, the amount he secured in the 2024 General Election. Anything less than this and it will look as though the people of Clacton are beginning to tire of their 'Prodigal son'.
He must also secure a higher vote share than what Conservative Giles Watling amassed in 2019 ,which stood at 72 %. Only if both of these demands are met can the by-election be considered in any form a success. Anything less, and it looks more like a pyrrhic victory.

This was my rare foray into Politics on HOL, I am now gallivanting back to the football debates !

This is rather desperate stuff Willo old chap.
This by election will have next to no impact on Farage's influence at the next election. The main parties ran away. That is the real headline. They knew they couldn't defeat Farage in a fair contest.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

Many locals call him Nigel "Mirage" as he is never there, but spends his time politicking in the US.

I don't know if those "locals" voted for him last time.

No attempt to debate policy anymore. Just attack Farage. Says it all.

 

[HKOwen]

Many locals call him Nigel "Mirage" as he is never there, but spends his time politicking in the US.

I don't know if those "locals" voted for him last time.

You spend a lot of time in Clacton talking to people?

 

[Willo]

This is rather desperate stuff Willo old chap.
This by election will have next to no impact on Farage's influence at the next election. The main parties ran away. That is the real headline. They knew they couldn't defeat Farage in a fair contest.

Kemi Badenoch writing in the 'Telegraph' explained precisely why the Conservatives were not going to dance to Farage's tune and accordingly did not stand a candidate in this election.
Her decision has been supported by 73% of Conservative members.
Nothing more to add, time to return to the Football debates which was my 'Raison d'être' for joining HOL !

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

Kemi Badenoch writing in the 'Telegraph' explained precisely why the Conservatives were not going to dance to Farage's tune and stand a candidate in this election.
Her decision has been supported by 73% of Conservative members.
Nothing more to add, time to return to the Football debates which was my 'Raison d'être' for joining HOL !

If you say so.

I hear the sound of panicked clucking coming from Westminster.

 

[HKOwen]

Farage must secure more than 21,225 votes, the amount he secured in the 2024 General Election. Anything less than this and it will look as though the people of Clacton are beginning to tire of their 'Prodigal son'.
He must also secure a higher vote share than what Conservative Giles Watling amassed in 2019 ,which stood at 72 %. Only if both of these demands are met can the by-election be considered in any form a success. Anything less, and it looks more like a pyrrhic victory.

This was my rare foray into Politics on HOL, I am now gallivanting back to the football debates !

All opinions welcome, and that's your opinion. So you mean it will look to you the people are beginning to tire etc.

I understand your desire to undermine Reform as much as you can though. This would not be a pyrrhic victory which is one that the winner can't afford to repeat.

Reform have no problem repeating this endlessly as far as I can see.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

You spend a lot of time in Clacton talking to people?

The conversations usually start with 'How much for a hand job?'

 

[Runningman]

If he gets as many votes as Burnham did at Makerfield, does he get to be PM ? I think this is how it works now in our current version of democracy.

 

[HKOwen]

The only one wriggling is you trying to justify why you claimed I said something that I didn’t.

You can apologise and move on. You’ve only lost a little bit of face.

Are you going to explain how " used as pawns " is not derogatory?

If only we had mods you could whine to..........hang on

 

[HKOwen]

Reform win with more votes than 2024, move on nothing to see here other than a resounding endorsement from the voters of Clacton.

Those pawns might only move one square at a time but they check mated the opponents easily.

Insults backfire, ask Clinton how the deplorables jibe worked for her.