Labour Party politics

Matov said:
For me, the issue is that Burnham needs to push a 'change' agenda because that is clearly what the mood demands. And what can he actually change? He will become leader on the back of the fears of Labour MP's about losing to Reform. Sure, everything might be roses for the next few months but it will not take much for it to switch back once the time moves on.

I increasingly think Burnham will be looking to go for an early GE on the back of these concerns. He will know he has no real agency over the UK economy for reasons hashed out else where. And that tactical voting against Reform got him over the line in Makerfield.

Goes to the country on the back of a manifesto promise of trying to take us back into the EU and its a straight forward fight between him and Reform. And that tactical voting from Lib Dems and Greens, all of whom are EU Twinks, gives him and many other MP's an advantage. Not saying he will but they must be considering it.
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Talk about risky.

Time and demographics moves on. Rejoin currently polls at about 55%. Thing is, a chunk of that is young; and you simply cannot trust them to turn up at a GE. Meanwhile, those 45% still clinging to Leave (i.e. most of you) are, of course, older; and every blessed one of you turns up on polling day.

Also, the Rejoin vote is possibly more fractured than the Leave. The key could be the Tories. A political feather for every wind that blows, if they sense a large shift to rejoin, and they do not risk outright war with their base, they will quietly reboot as a Rejoin party; and everyone will have forgotten within an alarmingly short period that they ever stood for Leave (Orwell knew his stuff).

Unlikely. Unless Burnham plans for coalition, I can see a plan to stand in a GE on a Rejoin platform scuppered not by Reform but by the Greens and the Lib-Dems.
 
silvertop said:
Talk about risky.

Time and demographics moves on. Rejoin currently polls at about 55%. Thing is, a chunk of that is young; and you simply cannot trust them to turn up at a GE. Meanwhile, those 45% still clinging to Leave (i.e. most of you) are, of course, older; and every blessed one of you turns up on polling day.

Also, the Rejoin vote is possibly more fractured than the Leave. The key could be the Tories. A political feather for every wind that blows, if they sense a large shift to rejoin, and they do not risk outright war with their base, they will quietly reboot as a Rejoin party; and everyone will have forgotten within an alarmingly short period that they ever stood for Leave (Orwell knew his stuff).

Unlikely. Unless Burnham plans for coalition, I can see a plan to stand in a GE on a Rejoin platform scuppered not by Reform but by the Greens and the Lib-Dems.
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Whereas you are still clinging on to an EU that we left ten years ago.
 
silvertop said:
Talk about risky.

Time and demographics moves on. Rejoin currently polls at about 55%. Thing is, a chunk of that is young; and you simply cannot trust them to turn up at a GE. Meanwhile, those 45% still clinging to Leave (i.e. most of you) are, of course, older; and every blessed one of you turns up on polling day.

Also, the Rejoin vote is possibly more fractured than the Leave. The key could be the Tories. A political feather for every wind that blows, if they sense a large shift to rejoin, and they do not risk outright war with their base, they will quietly reboot as a Rejoin party; and everyone will have forgotten within an alarmingly short period that they ever stood for Leave (Orwell knew his stuff).

Unlikely. Unless Burnham plans for coalition, I can see a plan to stand in a GE on a Rejoin platform scuppered not by Reform but by the Greens and the Lib-Dems.
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All of that has some merit but the primary issue remains for Burnham as to what to do next when the honeymoon period is over. It's already been made abundantly clear that the Bond markets are effectively have a veto on spending plans.

Business as usual for Labour spells disaster. He has to go with something.
 
Matov said:
All of that has some merit but the primary issue remains for Burnham as to what to do next when the honeymoon period is over. It's already been made abundantly clear that the Bond markets are effectively have a veto on spending plans.

Business as usual for Labour spells disaster. He has to go with something.
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Theresa May was always honourable and went to the electorate for a mandate...
 
silvertop said:
I merely highlighted the risk Burnham is facing by way of cautionary tale.

Is the heat getting to you chaps?
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Its actually a fair comparison although as has been astutely observed, conventional wisdom seemed to have it that she was a nailed on cert to win (which to be fair, she did in terms of the Tories still being the biggest part, albeit having to go into a coalition). Now happy to be corrected on this, but Labour has a much bigger majority than the Tories did at the time and I suspect that if Burnham did go for a snap GE with a rejoin Manifesto pledge, then Labour would probably lose seats but its also more than possible they would retain a fair working majority.

I would assume its either been gamed, or is being done so now, because it must be crystal clear that doing nothing probably does not save the day come three years time, so I guess it could be calculated that taking a hit now, which does not lose them a majority, is worth it compared to going the full term.
 
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