Iran

PalazioVecchio said:
The Germans armed the Easter Rising in 1916. Its an old part of the playbook. The US will surely want Iranians to rise up against the regime in Tehran.
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Apart from the usual US funded student rent a mob crowd that doesn't appear to be happening. Most people out on the streets appear to be mourners, instead of protestors. Iranian TV channels are interesting if you have an IPTV sub. Has the hearts and minds narrative failed again? I guess the man (and woman) in the street feels it's better the devil you know than the one you don't that has been sanctioning you for 50 years.
 
elgin eeagle said:
Apart from the usual US funded student rent a mob crowd that doesn't appear to be happening. Most people out on the streets appear to be mourners, instead of protestors. Iranian TV channels are interesting if you have an IPTV sub. Has the hearts and minds narrative failed again? I guess the man (and woman) in the street feels it's better the devil you know than the one you don't that has been sanctioning you for 50 years.
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The last uprising cost up to forty thousand lives. You couldn't blame them for waiting for the calvary to arrive this time.
 
Badger11 said:
We should keep out of it and so should the US. If we (US and UK) start bombing Iran it is likely to drive public sympathy there towards the current regime. no one likes being invaded by another country even if it is to support the rebels.

Iranian exiles are making a lot of noise about the west getting involved but they do not speak for the Iranian people. We have been through all this with Iraq where the governments listened to the exiles who had their own agendas.*

Stay out of it condemn the Iranian government for brutality and hope the rebels win and install a more moderate form of government. At that point offer the hand of friendship.

*They lied about weapons of mass destruction or simply didn't know and made it up.
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Degrading Iran's ability to bomb/attack other countries is already achieved.
 
elgin eeagle said:
Apart from the usual US funded student rent a mob crowd that doesn't appear to be happening. Most people out on the streets appear to be mourners, instead of protestors. Iranian TV channels are interesting if you have an IPTV sub. Has the hearts and minds narrative failed again? I guess the man (and woman) in the street feels it's better the devil you know than the one you don't that has been sanctioning you for 50 years.
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The trouble is that's all the majority of the population has ever known. Their comfort blanket of familiarity has been taken away. I would put it as a stronger version of us leaving the EU or the death of Her Majesty; it's all that a large percentage have ever known, although in Iran's case it's more controlling.
 
Common Sense Club said:
The trouble is that's all the majority of the population has ever known. Their comfort blanket of familiarity has been taken away. I would put it as a stronger version of us leaving the EU or the death of Her Majesty; it's all that a large percentage have ever known, although in Iran's case it's more controlling.
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Divorces, and other break-ups, are often difficult. But often for the best. Do you think the East Europeans want to go back to Communism ?

Hardcore islamic Iran is now finished. Whether it returns in 50 or 100 years is difficult to say. Eastern Europe is now full of anti-commies. Iran will have a lot of violent secular types....hell bent on preventing another Ayotollah.
 
PalazioVecchio said:
Divorces, and other break-ups, are often difficult. But often for the best. Do you think the East Europeans want to go back to Communism ?

Hardcore islamic Iran is now finished. Whether it returns in 50 or 100 years is difficult to say. Eastern Europe is now full of anti-commies. Iran will have a lot of violent secular types....hell bent on preventing another Ayotollah.
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Secular and pro western Iran exists, but perhaps you are also underestimating just how religious and anti western much of Iran actually is....or as I prefer to think Persia is now.

Fifty years of hardcore religion and teaching on top of what already had a foundation of support in the country leaves a considerable mark.

When the bombs stop there will still be 150,000 armed revolutionary guards.

Personally I think that without troops on the ground installing and then protecting a new government it's just going to revert to a kind of Syria.
 
Stirlingsays said:
Fifty years of hardcore religion and teaching on top of what already had a foundation of support in the country leaves a considerable mark.
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Ireland went from hardcore Catholic to hardcore Liberal. Eastern Europe from hardcore commie to christian westward looking. Nazi Germany became a haven for Angela Merkel. Oliver Cromwell's Puritan England became the whorehouse of Charles II.

Pendulums often swing. Cuba will probably go capitalist one day. A ton of Iranians utterly despise Islam, and they will soon have guns. During the French Revolution the first up the scaffold were the religious clerics. 20 years of bloody madness and chaos, of course.
 
PalazioVecchio said:
Ireland went from hardcore Catholic to hardcore Liberal. Eastern Europe from hardcore commie to christian westward looking. Nazi Germany became a haven for Angela Merkel. Oliver Cromwell's Puritan England became the whorehouse of Charles II.

Pendulums often swing. Cuba will probably go capitalist one day. A ton of Iranians utterly despise Islam, and they will soon have guns. During the French Revolution the first up the scaffold were the religious clerics. 20 years of bloody madness and chaos, of course.
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Good points it has to be said.

Well, I think I can say for all of us....it would be better if you are right.
I would certainly be happy to be wrong on this one.
 
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