War in Ukraine

ASCPFC said:
Another side of this is though depending on how much has been invested in Ukraine. People will want a return. Putin could do a secret deal to let Western Companies in (American) after the war. Maybe he already has but it doesn't look like it - or Trump would be getting rid of Zelensky right now. One would think.
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Major western companies aren't going back into Russia any time soon. As long as Putin or someone else like him is in control, the major companies aren't going to risk having to leave again. Instead, you'll see the opportunists who

The thing about Trump is that he doesn't care about Zelensky or Putin, he just doesn't want to have to deal with it anymore. If the earth could swallow them both up, he would be more than happy with that. If it was for the Chinese using Ukraine as a Canary test for US resolve against Taiwan, the US would have bailed out years ago.

I honestly don't think most adults who are honest about this think there will be an additional return on global investment into Ukraine. The humanitarian crowd believes that giving billions is a moral responsibility and the realists understand that emptying out Russian tank depots and neutering the Russian economy is about as much as the West is going to get out of this.
 
Mark B said:
Major western companies aren't going back into Russia any time soon. As long as Putin or someone else like him is in control, the major companies aren't going to risk having to leave again. Instead, you'll see the opportunists who

The thing about Trump is that he doesn't care about Zelensky or Putin, he just doesn't want to have to deal with it anymore. If the earth could swallow them both up, he would be more than happy with that. If it was for the Chinese using Ukraine as a Canary test for US resolve against Taiwan, the US would have bailed out years ago.

I honestly don't think most adults who are honest about this think there will be an additional return on global investment into Ukraine. The humanitarian crowd believes that giving billions is a moral responsibility and the realists understand that emptying out Russian tank depots and neutering the Russian economy is about as much as the West is going to get out of this.
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What Trump or the GOP thinks won't really make much difference, by the time the war is over they will be in their last year.....besides they will work for what ever the big money says and if you don't think that the big energy companies aren't going back to Russia I think you're going to be proven wrong.

Of course they are......Sure, western companies had to leave Russia but Russian companies had to do the same.....Once this war is over trade will gradually return.
 
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Stirlingsays said:
What Trump or the GOP thinks won't really make much difference, by the time the war is over they will be in their last year.....besides they will work forever the big money says and if you don't think that the big energy companies aren't going back to Russia I think you're going to be proven wrong.

Of course they are......Sure, western companies had to leave Russia but Russian companies had to do the same.....Once this war is over trade will gradually return.
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Risk vs Reward, it will be at least a decade after the war before majority companies go back in. Add in their ability to go to Venezuela and the possibility of Canada expanding its access and they have alternative locations that present a better return on investment for less risk. Exxon is still pissed at the billons that they lost there and are not in a mood to go back.

Russia tried last year to start getting them to come back in and they were rebuffed hard. Those companies have time on their side to wait for a new Russian regime. What you will see first though are the smaller companies that don't have the funding of the giants who are more accepting of risk at opportunity of huge reward.

Now could I be wrong, absolutely. It only takes one major board to make the decision to go to start a possible run back into Russia. I just don't see them willing to take that risk any time soon.
 
Mark B said:
Risk vs Reward, it will be at least a decade after the war before majority companies go back in. Add in their ability to go to Venezuela and the possibility of Canada expanding its access and they have alternative locations that present a better return on investment for less risk. Exxon is still pissed at the billons that they lost there and are not in a mood to go back.

Russia tried last year to start getting them to come back in and they were rebuffed hard. Those companies have time on their side to wait for a new Russian regime. What you will see first though are the smaller companies that don't have the funding of the giants who are more accepting of risk at opportunity of huge reward.

Now could I be wrong, absolutely. It only takes one major board to make the decision to go to start a possible run back into Russia. I just don't see them willing to take that risk any time soon.
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If the situation is considered stable.....Money talks.
 
Mark B said:
Risk vs Reward, it will be at least a decade after the war before majority companies go back in. Add in their ability to go to Venezuela and the possibility of Canada expanding its access and they have alternative locations that present a better return on investment for less risk. Exxon is still pissed at the billons that they lost there and are not in a mood to go back.

Russia tried last year to start getting them to come back in and they were rebuffed hard. Those companies have time on their side to wait for a new Russian regime. What you will see first though are the smaller companies that don't have the funding of the giants who are more accepting of risk at opportunity of huge reward.

Now could I be wrong, absolutely. It only takes one major board to make the decision to go to start a possible run back into Russia. I just don't see them willing to take that risk any time soon.
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What would you think if I said there are already loads of businesses doing deals in Russia, and there are loads jockeying for positions? They're at least doing it through proxies, Turkey, India, but a lot of it won't even be that hidden. Ever have a look at what say, Hunter Biden or Dennis and Mark Thatcher were up to? I don't think we can rule out anyone to do with Trump, nor would anyone do anything about it either. That's life.
 
ASCPFC said:
What would you think if I said there are already loads of businesses doing deals in Russia, and there are loads jockeying for positions? They're at least doing it through proxies, Turkey, India, but a lot of it won't even be that hidden. Ever have a look at what say, Hunter Biden or Dennis and Mark Thatcher were up to? I don't think we can rule out anyone to do with Trump, nor would anyone do anything about it either. That's life.
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I would say that some never left. This is where risk vs reward comes in. I've been studying India has a hobby for the last couple of years and they have mastered the art of utilizing proxy companies to avoid sanctions in Iran and later Russia and they have shared their playbook round the world to how to avoid sanctions and minimize risk. The major companies don't get involved and instead it is a shell "company" consisting of a CEO, a President and a clerk sitting in an office in Kolkata who are the "companies" dealing with Russia. They absorb the risk, which is minimal to them because they don't have a global footprint so US/European sanctions aren't much of a threat to them because they'll never be at that level.

But like I have said, those are fringe companies, not the globally powerhouses like BP who got burned and aren't heading back any time soon due to the instability associated with it. Not only from sanctions, but more importantly for them from their own stockholders who don't want to run the risk of losing their billion dollar investment. I'm not impressed by millions, I only get interested when billions start being thrown around because that is when the big kids come out to play.

I think we are all saying the same thing primarily, money is a primary driver for many people but there is a risk calculus involved for the investment. Some companies are more accepting of that risk while the larger global companies will let those other companies go first before they get involved again in Russia.
 
McAhuna said:
Some interesting data here.
Who are the real war-mongers?

https://twitter.com/x/status/2100246804650447118
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I don't believe anyone involved was actually honest during the agreements and afterwards the Germans and French have tried to recreate history to make it as if they were supporting Ukrainian development when in reality that neither of them did anything to help out Ukraine. The three nations who did the most (US, UK, Canada) put in a lot of resources to help Ukraine while Germany and France focused on keeping Russian natural resources flowing.

ECFR did a good postmortem on Minks 1/2 (Ukraine, Russia, and the Minsk agreements: A post-mortem – European Council on Foreign Relations) that was pretty objective in calling everyone out involved for either lying or being delusional about what could actually be achieved.
 
Sure, diversity is out of the window when it comes to the actual job.

Where's the woman in the combat patrol telling the radio operator to be quiet whilst the Muslim prays, exposing them in an open field.
 
Forced diversity and alphabet ideology is what Ukraine is going to get for choosing the US state department over a bit of both......They have already been made to change their laws on alphabet sexuality, with zero electional mandate to do so.

Their politicians are more corrupt than national.....like all the modern politicians today, the bigger brown envelope will always win.

If it had been smart it would have been like Turkey and played both sides because Ukraine wasn't western nor eastern but a mix of the two.

Instead the country has been used as a proxy and its future is dire.
 
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Stirlingsays said:
Forced diversity and alphabet ideology is what Ukraine is going to get for choosing the the US state department over a bit of both......They have already been made to change their laws on alphabet sexuality, with zero electional mandate to do so.

Their politicians are more corrupt than national.....like all the modern politicians today, the bigger brown envelope will always win.

If it had been smart it would have been like Turkey and played both sides because Ukraine wasn't western nor eastern but a mix of the two.

Instead the country has been used as a proxy and its future is dire.
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I agree that just about everyone has their own agenda in Ukraine, but to be fair, altruistic peace keeping lost the British their empire and Americans their credibility globally with their good deeds so if you are going to do something that is going to hurt, you might as well do it for something of gain.

State Department is less of the issue then USAID was. State Department has a ton of congressional oversight and mandates that they need to follow so they would use USAID as their slush fund so they could get around congressional oversight so they could spend $20 million for Iraqi Sesame Street, $15 million for condoms for the Taliban or $47,000 for a world changing transgender-theme opera in Colombia.
 
Spindle said:
Sure, diversity is out of the window when it comes to the actual job.

Where's the woman in the combat patrol telling the radio operator to be quiet whilst the Muslim prays, exposing them in an open field.
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There are numerous women who can do that job and be fine at it. And as a bonus, a significant majority of them also like women as well so it is a bonus to go drink with them after as they are amazing wing women.

Those are also never the women who they feature in the ads as they tend to go with the pretty and short while the ones who actually do it either play rugby or softball.
 
Mark B said:
There are numerous women who can do that job and be fine at it. And as a bonus, a significant majority of them also like women as well so it is a bonus to go drink with them after as they are amazing wing women.

Those are also never the women who they feature in the ads as they tend to go with the pretty and short while the ones who actually do it either play rugby or softball.
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I was specifically referring to the advert.

The IDF have many all female Merkava crews for example.
 
Putin signs presidential decree increasing the size of the Russian armed forces by nearly a million extra troops to 2.4 million men under arms, making the Russian armed forces the third largest in the world in terms of manpower behind China and India.

That's maximalist and to me it means the war is in its last year, due to the economic cost.

At some point we will have a Korea like settlement.
 
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Stirlingsays said:
Putin signs presidential decree increasing the size of the Russian armed forces by nearly a million extra troops to 2.4 million men under arms, making the Russian armed forces the third largest in the world in terms of manpower behind China and India.

That's maximalist and to me it means the war is in its last year, due to the economic cost.

At some point we will have a Korea like settlement.
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I would say you are correct, I just would put it at the final two possible years. I think Putin believes that he can get a better deal under Trump then whoever replaces Trump and that he'll have two years to pull it off, the first to go on the offense and threaten to overwhelm Ukraine and then the second to finalize what is going to end up being a complicated deal.
 
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