War in the Middle East

[Lanzo-Ad]

Trump's made a big mistake in my opinion......I don't see how Iran won't be more radical after this, not less.

Most of these buildings being bombed will be empty.....the economy will be even more fecked and that strengthens hardliners not reformers.

Iran's main army with small arms would be dispersed waiting this out.

Unless there's an invasion, US or other that's committed to a war, then this ends before April....An invasion is a lot of money and body bags, which Trump came in criticising in 2015.

Rationality tells you that it just costs both the US and the region too much money.

I think his idea, maybe, to create so much turmoil that the more westized Suadi, UAE,etc, will submit to Trumps idea to take complete control of Iran.

 

[Stirlingsays]

I think his idea, maybe, to create so much turmoil that the more westized Suadi, UAE,etc, will submit to Trumps idea to take complete control of Iran.

I think he's lost the plot.

 

[Wisbech Eagle]

I think he's lost the plot.

Did he ever have it?

Reality TV doesn’t require a plot. It just requires reactions.

 

[Stirlingsays]

Did he ever have it?

Reality TV doesn’t require a plot. It just requires reactions.

Yes I think he did.

When Bannon was directing him.

You see him via your own political lens.

I don't expect you to understand it from a different one.

There's a lot to be written about how Trump changed from that 2015 vision to this.

 

[kevlee]

I think he's lost the plot.

And people should be worried about Rubio and Hesketh who are showing real signs of derangement in their language and appearance. Talking today of 'total destruction and certain death'?!
Even the most ardent UK supporter of Trump must be wondering what is happening here and be concerned.
Just listened to Matt Frie on LBC, a very experienced world affairs journalist, and he mentioned Trump's recently announced Board of Peace, the Trump plan to resolve world issues by non-confrontational means. It seems thats been put on hold.
We have two war fronts now. US v Iran and Israel v Hezbollah / Lebanon, and the rest of the world is paying the price.

 

[Racehorse-80s]

I think he's lost the plot.

I’m thinking the same , I had some admiration for Trump but his gone batshit crazy and turned into a bully .
No one likes a bully , Backed himself into a corner by saying US will only accept total surrender from Iran , Iran now hold the Aces and won’t surrender whatever , Trump could start a ground war but Iran have a massive army and it will be painful to say the least , The gulf states are threatening to close oilfields and bankrupt the West , Trump better take that threat seriously and withdraw whilst he can still save some face IMO .

 

[Lanzo-Ad]

I think he's lost the plot.

Me, Trump or both 🙂

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

I’m thinking the same , I had some admiration for Trump but his gone batshit crazy and turned into a bully .
No one likes a bully , Backed himself into a corner by saying US will only accept total surrender from Iran , Iran now hold the Aces and won’t surrender whatever , Trump could start a ground war but Iran have a massive army and it will be painful to say the least , The gulf states are threatening to close oilfields and bankrupt the West , Trump better take that threat seriously and withdraw whilst he can still save some face IMO .

Iran holds the Aces? I don’t think so.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

I’m thinking the same , I had some admiration for Trump but his gone batshit crazy and turned into a bully .
No one likes a bully , Backed himself into a corner by saying US will only accept total surrender from Iran , Iran now hold the Aces and won’t surrender whatever , Trump could start a ground war but Iran have a massive army and it will be painful to say the least , The gulf states are threatening to close oilfields and bankrupt the West , Trump better take that threat seriously and withdraw whilst he can still save some face IMO .

Iran holds the Aces? I don’t think so. If they have no air defence they are toast.

 

[Stirlingsays]

Iran holds the Aces? I don’t think so. If they have no air defence they are toast.

It's not a conventional battle, it's bombing from the air.

All they have to do is wait for the US/Israel to use up their munitions....a matter of weeks...and I don't even think it lasts that long.

Each day that passes the world economy loses billions, because trade isn't going through the Strait....it's not insured.

Without having a large force invade Iran, I'm not seeing how Iran are cooked.

 

[Racehorse-80s]

Iran holds the Aces? I don’t think so. If they have no air defence they are toast.

It’s turning into a money war rather than military war , How high can oil and gas prices go before companies collapse and inflation rockets .
The Middle East have plenty of oil and Iran still have thousands of cheap drones to cause havoc with .

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

It’s turning into a money war rather than military war , How high can oil and gas prices go before companies collapse and inflation rockets .
The Middle East have plenty of oil and Iran still have thousands of cheap drones to cause havoc with .

Trump isn't going to stop now. Total victory is vital to peace in the region and his standing at home.

This has only just begun.

 

[georgenorman]

Trump isn't going to stop now. Total victory is vital to peace in the region and his standing at home.

This has only just begun.

You think there be peace in the region whatever the outcome?

 

[Stirlingsays]

Trump isn't going to stop now. Total victory is vital to peace in the region and his standing at home.

This has only just begun.

I think the best Trump can hope for is to turn Iran into another Syria, where they start a war between parts of the Iranian military and start a civil war....at the end of which they decide whether the winner is acceptable to them.

It's only an relative upside for Israel, while the States pay for regime change that only comes with costs, attacks and resentment for them.

And that's the best possible outcome as far as I can see it personally.....The Iranian military are kept together out of hatred anyway so are not that likely to break up.

But I suppose we have to hope for the best out of this mess.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

I think the best Trump can hope for is to turn Iran into another Syria, where they start a war between parts of the Iranian military and start a civil war....at the end of which they decide whether the winner is acceptable to them.

It's only an relative upside for Israel, while the States pay for regime change that only comes with attacks and resentment for them.

And that's the best possible outcome as far as I can see it personally.

I don't think Israel will settle for anything less that an Iran that offers no threat. Their military will be reduced to nothing by American attacks unless they surrender. Israel won't need America after that.
There must be a new government who submit to American power, or we will be doing this again in a few years. It's what the majority of Iranians want in the short term. They want to align with the West.

 

[Forest Hillbilly]

I think the end game,(whenever that might happen), is likely to revolve around security guarantees for Iran, like a massive USA military base and airfield, in exchange for oil contracts.

 

[Stirlingsays]

I don't think Israel will settle for anything less that an Iran that offers no threat. Their military will be reduced to nothing by American attacks unless they surrender. Israel won't need America after that.
There must be a new government who submit to American power, or we will be doing this again in a few years. It's what the majority of Iranians want in the short term. They want to align with the West.

Here's where I differ.

The US can't destroy the Iranian military without boots on the ground.....This is a country of 90 million with small arms troops of between 150 and 200 thousand, who aren't in bases waiting around to be bombed.

Not only that but the regime has militia adherents of around a million I hear.

So my position is that I don't really see regime change as realistic.

You think that the Iranian people want to align with the west.....Well a percent do...but I suspect most just want a better economic future, but I doubt that they want to die fighting for that without major backing on the ground....which they are unlikely to get.

Leaving them to do it themselves, which is what the Americans want, left thirty thousand dead in a few weeks last time.

I think that a lot of propaganda puts an over emphasis on pro western attitudes so it justifies whatever actions they take as being supported.......My take is that no population of people in the middle east is majority pro western/Israel.....part of the proof of that is that America have to pay governments surrounding Israel to keep them onside.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

You think there be peace in the region whatever the outcome?

No. Just a greatly reduced threat from Iran and it's friends. There will always be some resistance to Israel but without its primary driver it will be at a different level.

 

[Hrolf The Ganger]

Here's where I differ.

The US can't destroy the Iranian military without boots on the ground.....This is a country of 90 million with small arms troops of between 150 and 200 thousand, who aren't in bases waiting around to be bombed.

Not only that but the regime has militia adherents of around a million I hear.

So my position is that I don't really see regime change as realistic.

You think that the Iranian people want to align with the west.....Well a percent do...but I suspect most just want a better economic future, but I doubt that they want to die fighting for that without major backing on the ground....which they are unlikely to get.

Leaving them to do it themselves, which is what the Americans want, left thirty thousand dead in a few weeks last time.

I think that a lot of propaganda puts an over emphasis on pro western attitudes so it justifies whatever actions they take as being supported.......My take is that no population of people in the middle east is majority pro western/Israel.....part of the proof of that is that America have to pay governments surrounding Israel to keep them onside.

We will obviously have to wait and see, but 200k troops without air support are not in a good place.
You can't kill the all but you won't need to. Take out the special troops defending the hierarchy and I suspect the regular army will cave. Especially with many of the people supporting the enemy.

How can we negotiate with a leadership who threatens to kill the children of its own people if they rebel?

The best bet is to smash them hard day after day until they don't know what day it is and hope the regular army change sides.

 

[Wisbech Eagle]

Yes I think he did.

When Bannon was directing him.

You see him via your own political lens.

I don't expect you to understand it from a different one.

There's a lot to be written about how Trump changed from that 2015 vision to this.

Bannon may not be so visible these days but he retains a lot of influence. Stephen Miller has though largely replaced him as the architect.

That though is the point. It has never been Trump’s plot. He is just an actor in a plot written and directed by others. Others who have never faced the need to secure a vote. Others who I have some serious reservations about.