The Elbow in the Trendline. Our dramatic fall from Grace

[PalazioVecchio]

Leading up to the 3rd of October, we were one of the best teams in Europe. Late September : Second in the Prem table and looking untouchable. Having thumped Liverpool ( Prem Title holders) three times in four months, We could have given a nasty scare to Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, PSG or any other football Royalty.

There were actually 2 downward elbows. First , we lost to Everton on the 5th of October.....breaking the magic of our 'When we were Kings, at the Palace".

We hit a second downward elbow on the 12th of December.....our Form. And for a while there, we were easily the worst team in the Prem and also not much of a threat in cup games to minnows. The only nasty scare being the opposition could be beating us while enjoying a pint and a packet of Marlboro.

Ok, so look we have the dates, fairly certain. Now, for the autopsies please folks. One or two key injuries ? a tired squad ? the psychology went bad ? other teams figured out our system ? there was a political fallout behind the scenes ? Selling Eze took a while to nail us ? Guehi et al wanting out ? other ?

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[eaglesdare]

I feel like it all goes back to when Glasner told the board "I'm leaving and want a new challenge" at the end of October / early November? Since then we have played absolute rubbish. My last game at selhurst was the Brighton at home game and everything just felt off that day for some reason.

 

[TheBigToePunt]

Ok, so look we have the dates, fairly certain. Now, for the autopsies please folks. One or two key injuries ? a tired squad ? the psychology went bad ? other teams figured out our system ? there was a political fallout behind the scenes ?

The question suggests the downward trend in results and performances is somehow inexplicable, as if, had circumstances been different, we would naturally have maintained an historically unprecedented points per game ratio indefinitely.

Some of the issues you list wouldn't have helped, of course, but mostly we have just seen a reversion to the mean. There was no way at all palace could ever have kept such a remarkable run of form, results, and good fortune going.

There is a risk of projecting the circumstances onto the events and mistaking them for a cause. A fully committed Ferguson, assisted by Cruyff and Guardiola couldn't have kept palace in the top six over the longer run. The players overall just aren't that good, even the cup final team. They overachieved, even with the likes of Eze and Guehi playing.

Now there are important decisions to be made and a new chapter to be written, but so long as we stay in the league, which we absolutely will, the combination of squad depth, Europe, player sales, new signings failing to launch, Glasner spitting his dummy out, and whatever else has caused a bit of grief along the way has not cost us something we otherwise would have had, like a top six finish.

We would have fallen away no matter what.

 

[PatrickA]

Quite simply we're not the same team now as the one that looked all conquering.
The players who were instrumental in our success are either no longer with us, are going or have been unavailable for longish periods.
The stars aligned for us during our successful period and sadly this doesn't happen too often for clubs like ours and we now look distinctly average or worse.
Glasner has now shown he was correct when he first joined and declared that he was not a 'miracle worker.'
He has not been able to adapt to the different circumstances, to turn water into wine.
If anything it could be argued that his lack of flexibility and ability to adapt has made things worse.
I think we're a bit better than our current results indicate, but only slightly better.

 

[ex hibitionist]

No, we had a great first XI but no back up. Even in our bad run you could see how well coached the side was, but we had a depleted and tired squad - home to Fulham and Spurs our team play was superior to theirs, but we made errors at the back and were tired last 20 - we were great second half and in the shoot out at Arsenal, we had an entire season to prepare ourselves for the departures of Eze and Guehi, and Sarr at the Afcon, and delayed action. If we had done our business properly we could have extended that amazing run rather than fall off the cliff. We'll bounce back, but I think Ollie may be here physically but not mentally and I wouldn't mind seeing Paddy take over till the summer before we get our permanent replacement. After this elbow there will be a knees up, hopefully in Leipzig come May.

 

[Eaglecoops]

The question suggests the downward trend in results and performances is somehow inexplicable, as if, had circumstances been different, we would naturally have maintained an historically unprecedented points per game ratio indefinitely.

Some of the issues you list wouldn't have helped, of course, but mostly we have just seen a reversion to the mean. There was no way at all palace could ever have kept such a remarkable run of form, results, and good fortune going.

There is a risk of projecting the circumstances onto the events and mistaking them for a cause. A fully committed Ferguson, assisted by Cruyff and Guardiola couldn't have kept palace in the top six over the longer run. The players overall just aren't that good, even the cup final team. They overachieved, even with the likes of Eze and Guehi playing.

Now there are important decisions to be made and a new chapter to be written, but so long as we stay in the league, which we absolutely will, the combination of squad depth, Europe, player sales, new signings failing to launch, Glasner spitting his dummy out, and whatever else has caused a bit of grief along the way has not cost us something we otherwise would have had, like a top six finish.

We would have fallen away no matter what.

There is one simple answer to this post. Leicester City.

The only team to break the norm for an entire season so it is not impossible, just unlikely.

 

[Dogburger]

I'm sure Glasner has 'invested failure syndrome' .

Its a human tendency to continue to invest in a losing endeavor due to the time taken to perfect it rather than seeing its failures or the prospect of any future success .

The Glasner system works and has worked at various clubs for maybe a year -18 months and didn't we have fun . It then becomes stale and the coaches at other teams work it out . A few tweaks may give us the odd bounce but the long term prospects are dire .
He probably knows this himself hence only ever working on two year contracts .He cant change so he wont change.
He cant admit to himself that his system runs out of steam to the point it doesn't work ,its the players, its the subs ,its a mystery . Its my fault for playing too many kids . Its never the system because to admit that would be to admit he has wasted all the time he has invested working on it .

 

[TheBigToePunt]

There is one simple answer to this post. Leicester City.

The only team to break the norm for an entire season so it is not impossible, just unlikely.

The exception that proves the rule.
Other than, of course, showing that even when a mid-sized club hits the highest high, with all the rewards that come with it, not only can they not maintain it but it ultimately doesn't change their place in the scheme of things in the slightest. Look at them now.

 

[park the bus]

Quite simply we're not the same team now as the one that looked all conquering.
The players who were instrumental in our success are either no longer with us, are going or have been unavailable for longish periods.
The stars aligned for us during our successful period and sadly this doesn't happen too often for clubs like ours and we now look distinctly average or worse.
Glasner has now shown he was correct when he first joined and declared that he was not a 'miracle worker.'
He has not been able to adapt to the different circumstances, to turn water into wine.
If anything it could be argued that his lack of flexibility and ability to adapt has made things worse.
I think we're a bit better than our current results indicate, but only slightly better.

Precisely. Glasner came along at the right time due to either luck or intuition and had the strongest group that the club has had in a good while to work with, including a couple of exceptional talents. Now they have gone we see that Glasner is no better than the players that he manages, and arguably given recent performances in front of the camera, worse.

 

[PalazioVecchio]

Jose ManUre-Ho always seems to have a brilliant first year, followed by acrimony, bickering and a dramatic fall. Are we looking at something similar ?

 

[Eaglecoops]

The exception that proves the rule.
Other than, of course, showing that even when a mid-sized club hits the highest high, with all the rewards that come with it, not only can they not maintain it but it ultimately doesn't change their place in the scheme of things in the slightest. Look at them now.

Yes, the big boys dismantled that Leicester team the following season, they didn’t buy well to replace the core of the side and as you say, look at them now.

I suppose my point was that Palace could have sustained that form and done a ‘Leicester’, but as expected, we didn’t .

 

[Nicholas91]

Jose ManUre-Ho always seems to have a brilliant first year, followed by acrimony, bickering and a dramatic fall. Are we looking at something similar ?

I’d suggest so, albeit Glasner is a more extreme example in my eyes. I think Howe is similar too.

Unfortunately, I think it’s just the nature of football. From the ‘new manager bounce’ to the success of the likes of Ranieri or Glasner.

A new manager can come in and take the club by storm for a short period, brining with it short term success. In all seriousness, I would have backed us to beat anybody at some points last season… in fact it’s truthful to say both City and Liverpool were two of the elite, best teams in the world, and we beat them both at Wembley.

That doesn’t last forever though. As previously mentioned, a ‘return
to the mean’ is inevitable at best. The only conditions for continual success is cyclical, big money investment… and even that doesn’t guarantee a return, look at Man United.

Glasner was extraordinary for us but that crazy wave seems to have ridden its course and we’ve crashed back to reality, very harshly.

What Glasner did for us should never be forgotten, and I think his inclination to never stay anywhere too long reflects my post. We find ourselves in a more natural position now and it looks as though change is once again needed.

 

[PalazioVecchio]

but mostly we have just seen a reversion to the mean. There was no way at all palace could ever have kept such a remarkable run of form, results, and good fortune going.

eh, i beg to disagree. The palace average is somewhere between top 10 of the Championship and bottom 6 of the Prem.

our dramatic fall has looked like the back-to-back relegations of Charlton or Pompey......utterly dire. I wouldn't bet on us beating a girls pub team.