The Donald Trump thread

[Teddy Eagle]

oh cmon. Its not even a discussion point. The bloke is totally off his rocker. A candidate for the laughing academy. Makes king Lear look like Captain Sensible. Trump probably collects bottles of his own urine in the Oval Office.

but i still love him. Throw him into a TV studio with a hundred Gary Linekers and enjoy the spectacle.

If he did collect it he'd be selling it by now. Gravy for his Trumps Rumps or whatever his steaks are called.

 

[beak]

If he did collect it he'd be selling it by now. Gravy for his Trumps Rumps or whatever his steaks are called.

Very obscene.

 

[PalazioVecchio]

i reckon Trump's days are numbered. Either impeached or his health or another 'accident' or a Charlie Kirk moment. Most likely an impeachment.

and sadly, i will miss him. He brought a theatricality and a Monty Python / Fast Show level of chaos. Wearing a suit & tie and a gigantic white baseball hat with USA emblazed across it.

 

[Teddy Eagle]

Very obscene.

Some people say they're the most obscene steaks in the world.

 

[Spindle]

Depends on the sectors a bit I think but yeah, can't go wild forever

I sold Microsoft at $520, and they're $100 lower now, but the NASDAQ is still up a little since I dumped in November, and ftse100 has pushed a further 12% since then. LSE is undervalued.

I have a cash position waiting for said crash, but also gonna move house so might jizz some cash on the move.

 

[eaglesdare]

i reckon Trump's days are numbered. Either impeached or his health or another 'accident' or a Charlie Kirk moment. Most likely an impeachment.

and sadly, i will miss him. He brought a theatricality and a Monty Python / Fast Show level of chaos. Wearing a suit & tie and a gigantic white baseball hat with USA emblazed across it.

Hasn't he been impeached a few times before?

 

[syd snot]

Soppy orange c*** just needs to keep his gob in neutral for a while.

 

[HKOwen]

Agreed. Many overvalued AI firms all in a race with each other. Public enthusiasm/uptake is much lower than expected too so a lot of bubbles will burst before long.

Your timeframe for this bubble burst is how long?

 

[Stirlingsays]

Your timeframe for this bubble burst is how long?

Personally while I think it's overvalued at the moment I don't think the predictions of some dramatic AI decline in use is likely.

The US economy will crash and that's baked in within years (because that debt pile only gets higher)....explaining the price of gold and value of physical assets classes over the decline of cash.

But AI isn't going away and is a major part of how society is going to be structured.....you are living within the transition.

Language models are over-hyped, that's for sure and I think there will be a re-balancing of what AI can actually improve on compared to humans versus the cost.....At the moment investors are pumping money in hoping to hit upon the 'Amazon' for AI.....Because when it shakes down there will be losers but also winners....same as with the Internet bubble, which was also overvalued but was always going to succeed.

But in many ways, if effective automation across most human jobs doesn't succeed then the future is going to be very difficult anyway.....It's an industrial age shift.....but it's probably going to take longer than advertised in many areas.

 

[DanH]

Personally while I think it's overvalued at the moment I don't think the predictions of some dramatic AI decline in use is likely.

The US economy will crash and that's baked in within years (because that debt pile only gets higher)....explaining the price of gold and value of physical assets classes over the decline of cash.

But AI isn't going away and is a major part of how society is going to be structured.....you are living within the transition.

Language models are over-hyped, that's for sure and I think there will be a re-balancing of what AI can actually improve on compared to humans versus the cost.....At the moment investors are pumping money in hoping to hit upon the 'Amazon' for AI.....Because when it shakes down there will be losers but also winners....same as with the Internet bubble, which was also overvalued but was always going to succeed.

But in many ways, if effective automation across most human jobs doesn't succeed then the future is going to be very difficult anyway.....It's an industrial age shift.....but it's probably going to take longer than advertised in many areas.

Is response Owen, I have literally no idea, but I agree with what Stirling has said here (as icky as that makes me feel ☺️)

There’s a lot of money being pumped into an AI arms race that not everyone can win.

 

[PalazioVecchio]

I have a cash position waiting for said crash, but also gonna move house so might jizz some cash on the move.

me too. The inevitable London housing crash will have run its course by 2031....that will be a good time to buy property in London. But certainly don't buy anything this year.

anyhoo.............Donald Trump

 

[chris123]

Personally while I think it's overvalued at the moment I don't think the predictions of some dramatic AI decline in use is likely.

The US economy will crash and that's baked in within years (because that debt pile only gets higher)....explaining the price of gold and value of physical assets classes over the decline of cash.

But AI isn't going away and is a major part of how society is going to be structured.....you are living within the transition.

Language models are over-hyped, that's for sure and I think there will be a re-balancing of what AI can actually improve on compared to humans versus the cost.....At the moment investors are pumping money in hoping to hit upon the 'Amazon' for AI.....Because when it shakes down there will be losers but also winners....same as with the Internet bubble, which was also overvalued but was always going to succeed.

But in many ways, if effective automation across most human jobs doesn't succeed then the future is going to be very difficult anyway.....It's an industrial age shift.....but it's probably going to take longer than advertised in many areas.

I think the US debt only works if there's growth, while the bond market remains happy, like all markets they don't like surprises.

 

[HKOwen]

Is response Owen, I have literally no idea, but I agree with what Stirling has said here (as icky as that makes me feel ☺️)

There’s a lot of money being pumped into an AI arms race that not everyone can win.

So " before long " has no meaning.

I know it's an opinion albeit without any foundation

Life would be easier if you concentrate on posting things you have at least some idea about.

 

[Spindle]

So " before long " has no meaning.

I know it's an opinion albeit without any foundation

Life would be easier if you concentrate on posting things you have at least some idea about.

Nobody knows. There are several markers of crashes that have been heavily breached. People have been talking about crashes for ages.

Personally I don't want to get involved in 'trading' but I'm emotional with it sometimes. Usually that's a cock up, but this time it really does feel it and the us markets have had a couple of flat months already.

I think what is also different is the rise in domestic trading through ISAs and online trading accounts, the behaviour of amateurs like me. I think that will have some effect.

 

[HKOwen]

As soon as POUTUS utters an outrageous comment buy as a few days later he will take a different position and the share prices will return to where it was.

Have a look at HSBC as an example over the period of all options on the table regarding Greenland.
18th Jan 128, 19th Jan 127, 23rd Jan 130.

That's over 2% return in less than a week

 

[eaglesdare]

me too. The inevitable London housing crash will have run its course by 2031....that will be a good time to buy property in London. But certainly don't buy anything this year.

anyhoo.............Donald Trump

But don't you see....most of life's problems can be linked back to Donald Trump 🤣

 

[DanH]

So " before long " has no meaning.

I know it's an opinion albeit without any foundation

Life would be easier if you concentrate on posting things you have at least some idea about.

If everyone on here did that these boards would be very quiet 🙂

 

[Stirlingsays]

If everyone on here did that these boards would be very quiet 🙂

You especially would never post.

In fact if minus posts were possible you'd be on the leaderboard: admittedly behind your landlord mate.

 

[Badger11]

Personally while I think it's overvalued at the moment I don't think the predictions of some dramatic AI decline in use is likely.

The US economy will crash and that's baked in within years (because that debt pile only gets higher)....explaining the price of gold and value of physical assets classes over the decline of cash.

But AI isn't going away and is a major part of how society is going to be structured.....you are living within the transition.

Language models are over-hyped, that's for sure and I think there will be a re-balancing of what AI can actually improve on compared to humans versus the cost.....At the moment investors are pumping money in hoping to hit upon the 'Amazon' for AI.....Because when it shakes down there will be losers but also winners....same as with the Internet bubble, which was also overvalued but was always going to succeed.

But in many ways, if effective automation across most human jobs doesn't succeed then the future is going to be very difficult anyway.....It's an industrial age shift.....but it's probably going to take longer than advertised in many areas.

Agreed. I was at the start of the internet revolution. It was all hype and no one had a clue. The Simpsons did an episode where Homer sets up an IT company and Bill Gates didn't understand what it did (neither did Homer) so sees it as a threat. There was a lot of these types and they soon died (not before somebody made a big profit).

I remember having a group conversation with colleagues as we tried to predict what would happen (mine were wrong). One guy nailed it. He said it doesn't matter how smart your website is business will succeed or fail on their ability to deliver things. He was absolutely right so many companies went to the wall because they couldn't do the basics. Meanwhile Amazon spent a fortune and never made a profit for years because it invested in warehouses and logistics which was the right call.

Back to AI the same principle applies. The AI companies that succeed will be the ones that find a market. Whether they will aim directly for the consumer or offer their services to other corporates remains to be seen.

AI is a tool but it needs to find a market. Any idiot can set up a basic AI to answer the phone or chatbot. The AI's that thrive will be the ones that can corner a market and monetise it. I should find my old mate and ask him for investment advice.

 

[Stirlingsays]

Agreed. I was at the start of the internet revolution. It was all hype and no one had a clue. The Simpsons did an episode where Homer sets up an IT company and Bill Gates didn't understand what it did (neither did Homer) so sees it as a threat. There was a lot of these types and they soon died (not before somebody made a big profit).

I remember having a group conversation with colleagues as we tried to predict what would happen (mine were wrong). One guy nailed it. He said it doesn't matter how smart your website is business will succeed or fail on their ability to deliver things. He was absolutely right so many companies went to the wall because they couldn't do the basics. Meanwhile Amazon spent a fortune and never made a profit for years because it invested in warehouses and logistics which was the right call.

Back to AI the same principle applies. The AI companies that succeed will be the ones that find a market. Whether they will aim directly for the consumer or offer their services to other corporates remains to be seen.

AI is a tool but it needs to find a market. Any idiot can set up a basic AI to answer the phone or chatbot. The AI's that thrive will be the ones that can corner a market and monetise it. I should find my old mate and ask him for investment advice.

There's a lot of unreliable slop with AI and I think that once the novelty wears off....which I think is already happening....then people will rely upon it more as a support rather than this panacea which many people have been sold.

That said, I think in most industries it will quicken outcomes (via expert systems and eventually robotics) and in certain industries it will be revolutionary but those industries are those that are mainly closed loop systems rather than open.

I think humans driving will mainly become a passtime by 2050....by which time I'll be pushing up daises. And it's this reality....(that transition times with complex systems takes time because of scale/price) that until mass production makes pricing available for all....those jobs won't be gone for well, until Gen X is mostly a memory.

Physical labour jobs will be the same, anything that fits a 'template', like a house or producing a product, excepting maintenance those jobs are gone....That will probably be quicker than cars for companies that can afford the investment.....It's already happened in China 'their automated ports are amazing' and with big US companies like the aforementioned Amazon.

It's the jobs that involve closed loop systems that will go....just as chess is performed better by programs now, so will anything that can be automated without much fuss.

The creative industries will be a human industry but only 'in person', so comedy stand up, theatre, bands, all the industries where human contact or experiences are what people want. I see those industries getting bigger as automation becomes more and more a part of your daily life. I don't see that changing for a long long time until you can't tell the difference between a robot and a human....in actual person, which despite some nice prototypes....in reality is a long way off.

But personally I think language models will exist as more of a support role for experienced professionals for many industries for a long time, which means less jobs, but not no jobs.

If I were a teacher advising a bright lad...and the occasional bright lass who showed interest. I'd be advising them to get involved in robotics.

What this means though for Mr 90-100 IQ is a bit scary. As we know that they have been screwed by their leaders for a generation already and I'm not seeing how that changes.....Hopefully I'm wrong....because MR 90-100 might just decide to throw a hissy fit and who can blame them....happened with the Luddites (but then again, the Luddites actually did have new jobs eventually).

In terms of investment, at the moment companies like Nvidea and other big hitters are building the physical AI and software infrastructure and at some point that intense build stage will near it's end...I'm not invested personally (I like gold and silver coins) but if I were......Personally I'd be looking to exit a year before that happens.

Because whether AI is a disappointment or not (I think it'll be a disappointment compared to the hype), that infrastructure is going to be built and the money is going to be there....public or private because FOMO is real.