You’re grouping a huge range of social and economic changes under neoliberalism and feminism and then treating those labels as explanations, rather than descriptions. Saying 'all these countries have feminism' doesn’t establish any sort of causation. Fertility decline tracks industrialisation, urbanisation, rising housing costs, longer education, and economic insecurity - trends that largely predate, or at least operate independently of, modern feminist ideology.
Well, I'm not writing a book....my posts are often longer than I'd prefer anyway.
I don't agree with your seeming belief that fertility is purely an economic outgrown and I think you ignore the feminist influences and effects without explaining why.
On Hungary; family policies did temporarily lift fertility, but it never reached replacement and has since fallen again... achieved at high fiscal cost and without removing reliance on migration elsewhere.
Yes, Hungary is or was fighting against a long cultural movement that has ingrained itself over generations. It takes more than just a few years. However, as I proved when comparing it to France, the native birth rate rose, which was their aim. Indeed, I think they would have more to do to increase it.....but frankly I'm not sure that democracy can achieve it....though I'd prefer it to.
Work isn’t coercion, no - reproduction is just fundamentally different.
Yes, work is coercion in most cases.....unless it's a job someone naturally loves.
Most people, like energy, naturally move to the lowest energy state. Most people wouldn't work if society didn't both sell the message that it's positive for them compared to the alternative.
The same thing should have been done with child-birth for women......Which most women aren't against anyway. In fact they have been propagandized against it by both feministic and corporate neoliberal forces.
Labour shortages can be offset by productivity
Sometimes, usually technology dependent.
Snap, and hopefully true but also has downsides....This is yet to play out but better work or things will be even worse.
Sometimes but only very tightly restricted, it creates bigger problems than it solves when run by social and neoliberals. Japan have the right focus on migration but Europe has had a disaster.
. There is no equivalent substitute for compelling births, which is why cultural pressure alone has consistently failed.
Disagree, but it's part of a much bigger conversation.
Cultural pressure worked much more successfully in the past but I accept that contraception and modern technology has made that culture far less successful.
It would need looking into with a modern frame.
Declining birth rates are an economic problem, not a cultural or messaging one - children are now an enormous private cost and until things like housing, childcare and job security are addressed, moral or cultural appeals won’t make a dent. If having children reliably meant stable housing, affordable childcare, secure employment, and no long-term career penalty, fertility would invariably be higher.
Fertility rates are far higher in less economically successful countries so like I said previously the cultural messaging which leads to far higher expectation levels in women and....plenty of men has a far higher impact than you appear to accept.
Changing the picture requires both economic and cultural change.
Neither will be that pretty.
More broadly, how does your preferred cultural set-up replace the lost labour, lost tax base, and rising dependency ratios without immigration?
Automation would have to work.....but you're right that living standards will fall......which is coming regardless of 'my preferred cultural set-up', along with inevitable internal conflict due to demographic and cultural cohesion break down.....which the immigration you refer to is basically responsible for.
Not all immigration is bad, just most of it.
USA
