Depends what people want to achieve this year. For me, it's get back into Europe so that we can hang onto players and the manager more easily. There's four routes to that:
- Win the Carabao Cup. We likely have to do Arsenal away, Chelsea 2 legs, City netural. So far this season those fixtures are p3, 0 goals scored, 1 point. It's now the toughest route.
- Win the FA Cup. Can't realistically do a good job of it if focusing on any more than 1 other thing. Can be screwed by 1 bad draw. Probably the 2nd hardest.
- Top 7ish in the league. Doable, but 10% of the season takes place between 28th Dec and 7th Jan, against 3 European sides, so we need to be fresh for it. 8 days off between Leeds and the start of those games would be very valuable. Wherever we finish, it's still £2.5m ish a place. Last year we missed out on about £10m by 3 points. If we do get in, it will be tight.
- Win the Conference League. Doable, but it'll come down to one off games from March onwards. Can't plan for that now.
For me, the Carabao Cup gets dropped now. The only scenario where we're screwed is being in the knockouts and beating Arsenal. That would give us 4 extra games that need to be full strength. Beat Arsenal and we harm all 3 other objectives for likely no gain because Chelsea and City are a huge hurdle.
If we want a chance of making Europe through the league, I don't think we can throw any league game. The idea that we would have qualified for Europe with a >3 point margin whilst also fighting on multiple fronts feels a big stretch.
For me, a near-full strength team has to go to Leeds. If we end up in the knockouts, it's frustrating but so be it - we should get through and we have a chance to strengthen in Jan. Whatever team we put out tonight is good enough to win if the senior players turn up.