Canadian to become an "Associate Member" of the EU

As with everything, I think there are going to be multiple winners and losers in this.

Carney:
- Winner. Gets applauded by Europeans and Canadian Liberals who hate Trump. Carney is a European first and and a Canadian second so this has been his plan since his BoE days.
- Carney is rich and the rich rarely struggle. Especially since he keeps the majority of his money invested in the US, along with his family.
- His legacy will be a mixed bag of history books, many applauding him for standing up for Trump while realists point out that he and Trudeau were a one-two punch to the Canadian economy that lead to a mass exodus overseas of Canadians and an influx in of non-Canadian Asians.

Canada:
- Liberals get their win of throwing a middle finger to Trump. That it doesn't actually do anything at all to Trump is fairly standard for the Elbows Up crowd who care more about optics then reality.
- Canada already has massive problems with overregulation strangling economic progress and adding it to the EU, even as an Associate Member, is going to come with additional strings for Canada. As dumb as it sounds for people outside of Canada, it is easier for Canadian provinces to trade with the US then it is to trade with other Canadian provinces. This isn't hyperbole, this is fact.
- Oddly, it won't hurt Liberals in the long run because Conservatives are basically the same and not a true opposition party of different ideas. Both Liberals and Conservatives would be Democrats in the US. Speaking of which.
- This is going to be a fatal wound to the Canadian auto industry. Toyota and Honda will move forward with their plans to complete the transition of their US manufacturing to the US and leaving only skeletal remains. They were going to do it anyway, but both have massive issues with the EU and don't want to be overly exposed to the EU.
- Economics: This looks good on paper and Canada should increase trade with the EU. But it won't replace the US any time soon as Canada's primary partner. Geography dictates who we play with. It will also result in decreased US investment in Canada once the rules are identified that Canada will be under.
- Lack of Media Oversight: Carney lied directly to the Canadian people about this happening. That it wasn't Canadian news who broke the story is a problem, especially since American news agencies barely report anything to do with Canada. If Canada is forced to outsource media credibility to other nations, that is a huge problem. Almost as big of a problem as Carney not caring what the rest of Canada or Canada's elected officials have to say about this.
- Authoritarianism. At this point, Carney has Putin levels of control over the Canadian government to do what he wants. Trump wishes he had this level of control. And the adulation by the hate America faction are validating that he can do it.
- Brain Drain: 120,000 Canadians moved to the US in 2025. The majority of those being working age people concerned about their lack of economic opportunity in Canada. In return the 7,500 Americans moved north with a significant number of them being academics and medical personnel, with a majority of those medical personnel going into BC (1,000 out of the total 7,500).

US:
- This will be spun by Carney and the EU as standing up to Trump but the reality is that Trump really doesn't care as long as the US gets natural resources from Canada and jobs back into the US.
- Trump will view this as a middle finger to him. He'll also have Scott Bessent look at how they can take advantage of it.
- Transition of US based goods back to US manufacturing. The auto industry will be the big one but alcohol will follow.

The reality:
- No tangible benefits will come out of this for years for Canada. Trade to the US is currently six times what it is to the EU and while some increase is likely, the majority of what Canada sells is not easy to get to Europe, especially without going through the US.
- Some companies who don't like working with the EU are going to be hesitant to invest in Canada until what being an Associated Member is clearly defined. Coming on the heels of the Investment Summit it will be a question asked by those companies of why they weren't told about it during the Summit and why did Carney only decide to talk about it when he got to Europe and what else is possibly hiding?
 
Mark B said:
As with everything, I think there are going to be multiple winners and losers in this.

Carney:
- Winner. Gets applauded by Europeans and Canadian Liberals who hate Trump. Carney is a European first and and a Canadian second so this has been his plan since his BoE days.
- Carney is rich and the rich rarely struggle. Especially since he keeps the majority of his money invested in the US, along with his family.
- His legacy will be a mixed bag of history books, many applauding him for standing up for Trump while realists point out that he and Trudeau were a one-two punch to the Canadian economy that lead to a mass exodus overseas of Canadians and an influx in of non-Canadian Asians.

Canada:
- Liberals get their win of throwing a middle finger to Trump. That it doesn't actually do anything at all to Trump is fairly standard for the Elbows Up crowd who care more about optics then reality.
- Canada already has massive problems with overregulation strangling economic progress and adding it to the EU, even as an Associate Member, is going to come with additional strings for Canada. As dumb as it sounds for people outside of Canada, it is easier for Canadian provinces to trade with the US then it is to trade with other Canadian provinces. This isn't hyperbole, this is fact.
- Oddly, it won't hurt Liberals in the long run because Conservatives are basically the same and not a true opposition party of different ideas. Both Liberals and Conservatives would be Democrats in the US. Speaking of which.
- This is going to be a fatal wound to the Canadian auto industry. Toyota and Honda will move forward with their plans to complete the transition of their US manufacturing to the US and leaving only skeletal remains. They were going to do it anyway, but both have massive issues with the EU and don't want to be overly exposed to the EU.
- Economics: This looks good on paper and Canada should increase trade with the EU. But it won't replace the US any time soon as Canada's primary partner. Geography dictates who we play with. It will also result in decreased US investment in Canada once the rules are identified that Canada will be under.
- Lack of Media Oversight: Carney lied directly to the Canadian people about this happening. That it wasn't Canadian news who broke the story is a problem, especially since American news agencies barely report anything to do with Canada. If Canada is forced to outsource media credibility to other nations, that is a huge problem. Almost as big of a problem as Carney not caring what the rest of Canada or Canada's elected officials have to say about this.
- Authoritarianism. At this point, Carney has Putin levels of control over the Canadian government to do what he wants. Trump wishes he had this level of control. And the adulation by the hate America faction are validating that he can do it.
- Brain Drain: 120,000 Canadians moved to the US in 2025. The majority of those being working age people concerned about their lack of economic opportunity in Canada. In return the 7,500 Americans moved north with a significant number of them being academics and medical personnel, with a majority of those medical personnel going into BC (1,000 out of the total 7,500).

US:
- This will be spun by Carney and the EU as standing up to Trump but the reality is that Trump really doesn't care as long as the US gets natural resources from Canada and jobs back into the US.
- Trump will view this as a middle finger to him. He'll also have Scott Bessent look at how they can take advantage of it.
- Transition of US based goods back to US manufacturing. The auto industry will be the big one but alcohol will follow.

The reality:
- No tangible benefits will come out of this for years for Canada. Trade to the US is currently six times what it is to the EU and while some increase is likely, the majority of what Canada sells is not easy to get to Europe, especially without going through the US.
- Some companies who don't like working with the EU are going to be hesitant to invest in Canada until what being an Associated Member is clearly defined. Coming on the heels of the Investment Summit it will be a question asked by those companies of why they weren't told about it during the Summit and why did Carney only decide to talk about it when he got to Europe and what else is possibly hiding?
Click to expand...

You seem to know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Nobody wants the USA anymore.

😎
 
steeleye20 said:
You seem to know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Nobody wants the USA anymore.

😎
Click to expand...

You mean other then the US being the country that the most people in the world want to move to with the economy that is not only the largest by a wide margin, but is also growing at a total annually that is half of the total GDP for the UK ($2 trillion a year compared to $4.26 trillion total).

But please, tell me more about how no one wants the US anymore.

LOL
 
PalazioVecchio said:
what kind of a dingbat banana Republic can have a major constitutional change without it being put to a vote. A referendum of all Canadian Citizens.

Otherwise its about as legit as Steve Parish replacing our logo with a gigantic Seagull crapping on our heads.

And the opinions of people already inside the EU ? maybe our leaders will accept the membership of North Korea ?
Click to expand...
How about the USA, going to war without a vote in Congress?
There have been no details of what an associate membership even means and will probably be pretty minor. Almost all trade is free currently
 
Mark B said:
As with everything, I think there are going to be multiple winners and losers in this.
Click to expand...
It may be worth it if it enough swing states that are economically strongy linked to Canada switch to the Democrats in the mid-terms. Of course, Trump might want to take revenge. Whatever, it is going to be interesting
 
travz said:
As a palace fan living in Canada there’s a lot of terrible takes on here.
Trump left Carney with no real choice given the trade demands
Click to expand...
I'm curious of why you think Carney killed the deal, because it wasn't language or China.
 
pssguy said:
It may be worth it if it enough swing states that are economically strongy linked to Canada switch to the Democrats in the mid-terms. Of course, Trump might want to take revenge. Whatever, it is going to be interesting
Click to expand...
As strange as it will sound, it won't matter what happens in the midterms because there is no way for Trump to have a majority to do what he wants to do. There isn't a path for Republican supermajority, especially since a fair number of the Republicans hate Trump.

So he'll spend the next two years doing anything that he can with executive orders. It also means that he won't be in any type of rush to force anything through because he won't be running again in 2028.
 
the EU is constantly slapping fines and other financial penalties on its member-States.

Its like joining the mafia and needing to kick up a big envelope to Uncle Paulie. ....every week.
 
I am in the Balkans at the moment interesting to see their reactions. Many have been waiting years to join the EU so not happy that Canada appears to be getting a great deal. Macron proposed a similar associate member deal for the UK and that never happened because other nember states didn't want it. Some are saying the President has gone rogue on this.
 
I think the EU and Carney deserve each other.
 
Badger11 said:
Lol. I think EU and Canada playing games with Trump. A deal would take years and as I have said above there is a queue of other countries who actually want to join. It will probably end up as a simple trade deal.
Click to expand...
You are absolutely correct, the EU has just as many issues with Canada as the US does, and many of them are the same issue (dairy).

This is a publicity stunt for Carney to throw a middle finger at Trump. The issue for Canadians is that businesses, especially ones that are already frustrated with Canadian over regulation are going to see it as a sign to come and execute their evacuation plans to move plants to the US.

But pissing off Trump is more important to Carney supporters, so they will cheer this one despite no one having an actual clue what it will include or the repercussions from it.
 
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