Everyone goes by the highest probability.
For example, I know that from teaching, if a student comes out of primary school with a C in maths. The higher likelihood is that same child will basically stay a C student in maths.
However, a high likelihood isn't a fact because humans are humans are the reality is that plenty of students are capable of better but aren't fully committed. Many are, some aren't.....so some end up doing better and some do worse....but most remain the same.
It's the same in football....the main difference though is probably physical and confidence instead of mental commitment....though humans being humans that happens as well.
So what are you going to do as a scout and/or youth coach? Most are going to judge players by what is most probable, so while most people can spot obvious talent....you are always going to get a minor number of great players slip though because some humans develop later for whatever reason.
I doubt that there isn't a scout or coach out there that hasn't made a mistake on a youth player.
England
