Iran

silvertop said:
In some ways Iran and Israel are two sides of the same coin.

No concessions.

All acts met with overwhelming vindictive power.

Trump is a deal maker within the concept understood in the west who genuinely believed he could get a quick result in this theatre.

He is not the sharpest tack but I wonder if it has finally dawned on him why successive Presidents have avoided straying into these waters.
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you could be right. Or maybe Trump is little more than an Israeli puppet ?
 
The US will continue to ramp up pressure until they get what they get a deal that they find acceptable. And it will surely be drastically more extensive then the delusional fantasies that the administration had at the beginning of the attacks.

The Iranian government functions like a squad on administration that doesn't have an owner (Mojtaba Khamenei is likely dead) and the managers (elected officials) have no ability to control the players (IRGC) and what they do. The IRGC doesn't listen to the elected leaders, the clerics or the non-IRGC Iranian military. The IRGC is not going to let a deal go down in which they cannot declare victory, even if it a Pyrrhic one, as it would cause them to lose power. The IRGC doesn't care what happens to the Iranian people, only that they maintain power with the next regime.

We are likely to see the US do a raid on either Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas or Chabahar in an effort to put more pressure on Iran to capitulate. And as people have stated, this is why previous administrations didn't attack Iran as removing the Ayatollah created a vacuum that cannot be easily filled which is why negotiations can make progress in meetings but Iran cannot follow them.

​

 
silvertop said:
In some ways Iran and Israel are two sides of the same coin.

No concessions.

All acts met with overwhelming vindictive power.

Trump is a deal maker within the concept understood in the west who genuinely believed he could get a quick result in this theatre.

He is not the sharpest tack but I wonder if it has finally dawned on him why successive Presidents have avoided straying into these waters.
Click to expand...

Do you think that Israel would be attacking Iran then if Iran didn't

Launch ballistic missiles at them
Fund Hezbollah
Fund Hamas
 
Crocodile tears. As if you care.
 
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Both trade routes are now under the control of Iran & by proxy the Houthis who have unsurprisingly made short work of the Saudi backed Yemeni military.
There has already been a direct strike on the Saudi Petroline Overland pipe so presumably that's offline for the foreseeable future.

I predicted all this earlier in the thread.

If this carries on Saudi Arabia in its current state will collapse given it's almost total dependency on oil & has no choice but to mobilise & force out the Houthis - the Saudis are not winning that fight.

With US options narrowing & it's obsession with Iranian nukes (I genuinely think the Iranians have one) were heading towards the US using nuclear tipped bunker busters (B61?) on the likes of Pickaxe triggering Iran into flattening every water desalination plant it can reach, the US could also get involved in a ground war which Iran seems enthusiastic about.

The public are not ready to see US troops turned into red mist in realtime 4k as a cheap Chinese drone first taunts & then ploughs into it's desperate victim, that's the reality in Ukraine for both sides & it will be no different in Iran/Yemen

The sheer amount of oil, nitrogen & other resources taken off the market is extreme.

Prepare accordingly.
 
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eurozone Interest-rates went up yesterday. As I had predicted, we are now facing into high inflation and high interest rates...... across the whole Planet.

This will cause much upset, and not a little strife, on your local street. A house-price crash & London negative-equity incoming.
 
Ouzo Dan said:
View attachment 4247
Both trade routes are now under the control of Iran & by proxy the Houthis who have unsurprisingly made short work of the Saudi backed Yemeni military.
There has already been a direct strike on the Saudi Petroline Overland pipe so presumably that's offline for the foreseeable future.

I predicted all this earlier in the thread.

If this carries on Saudi Arabia in its current state will collapse given it's almost total dependency on oil & has no choice but to mobilise & force out the Houthis - the Saudis are not winning that fight.

With US options narrowing & it's obsession with Iranian nukes (I genuinely think the Iranians have one) were heading towards the US using nuclear tipped bunker busters (B61?) on the likes of Pickaxe triggering Iran into flattening every water desalination plant it can reach, the US could also get involved in a ground war which Iran seems enthusiastic about.

The public are not ready to see US troops turned into red mist in realtime 4k as a cheap Chinese drone first taunts & then ploughs into it's desperate victim, that's the reality in Ukraine for both sides & it will be no different in Iran/Yemen

The sheer amount of oil, nitrogen & other resources taken off the market is extreme.

Prepare accordingly.
Click to expand...
You'd have thought Saudi could sort this out
 
chris123 said:
You'd have thought Saudi could sort this out
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They've got loads of Gucci kit, easily one of the best air forces in the middle east but apparently went cap in hand to Trump asking him to stop the Houthis & they were ignored.

The last time the Houthis blockaded part of the red sea, the US ended up paying them off to stop as air strikes failed
 
Why oh why are we still on oil. Damaging in so so many ways.
 
Mark B said:
The US will continue to ramp up pressure until they get what they get a deal that they find acceptable. And it will surely be drastically more extensive then the delusional fantasies that the administration had at the beginning of the attacks.

The Iranian government functions like a squad on administration that doesn't have an owner (Mojtaba Khamenei is likely dead) and the managers (elected officials) have no ability to control the players (IRGC) and what they do. The IRGC doesn't listen to the elected leaders, the clerics or the non-IRGC Iranian military. The IRGC is not going to let a deal go down in which they cannot declare victory, even if it a Pyrrhic one, as it would cause them to lose power. The IRGC doesn't care what happens to the Iranian people, only that they maintain power with the next regime.

We are likely to see the US do a raid on either Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas or Chabahar in an effort to put more pressure on Iran to capitulate. And as people have stated, this is why previous administrations didn't attack Iran as removing the Ayatollah created a vacuum that cannot be easily filled which is why negotiations can make progress in meetings but Iran cannot follow them.

​

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In 1979 Iran set up a political system that was designed to be impossible for foreign powers to dismantle or for revolution to overthrow. Bitter recent experience you see.

The US administration knows this which is why they treat Iran as a pariah state and dealt with them through sanctions and restrictions that meant the government continues but with less effect and impact overseas.

Trump doesn't appear to be in lock step with his own people on this. Doing his own thing with little thought of consequences.

No change there then.
 
It doesn't need to be. You just need to heat it to 600c, the fuel source doesn't matter
 
Ouzo Dan said:
View attachment 4247
Both trade routes are now under the control of Iran & by proxy the Houthis who have unsurprisingly made short work of the Saudi backed Yemeni military.
There has already been a direct strike on the Saudi Petroline Overland pipe so presumably that's offline for the foreseeable future.

I predicted all this earlier in the thread.

If this carries on Saudi Arabia in its current state will collapse given it's almost total dependency on oil & has no choice but to mobilise & force out the Houthis - the Saudis are not winning that fight.

With US options narrowing & it's obsession with Iranian nukes (I genuinely think the Iranians have one) were heading towards the US using nuclear tipped bunker busters (B61?) on the likes of Pickaxe triggering Iran into flattening every water desalination plant it can reach, the US could also get involved in a ground war which Iran seems enthusiastic about.

The public are not ready to see US troops turned into red mist in realtime 4k as a cheap Chinese drone first taunts & then ploughs into it's desperate victim, that's the reality in Ukraine for both sides & it will be no different in Iran/Yemen

The sheer amount of oil, nitrogen & other resources taken off the market is extreme.

Prepare accordingly.
Click to expand...

Trump really cocked this up.

So many mistakes.....I mean twice bombing Iranian negotiating teams......He went balls deep without having a knob to actually do the job. He did what all fools did and put everything on red.

His madman and no loyalty approach doesn't work when you need others to help you.

If he can't get subversion invasions to overthrow the regime.....And why would they trust him?.....He has to take the L and just leave......If this was twenty years ago he could throw two hundred thousand troops into Iran and beat them because back then America had far more quality troops than it has now (despite the larger budget) and we didn't have drones.

If I were him I'd focus on helping the Saudis stay in power because if he loses the House of Saud that's bigger than losing the Iranian war.

Like the saying goes, 'there's no fool, like an old fool'.

I could see Israel small nuking Iran.....which would have consequences far beyond the middle east.
 
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Stirlingsays said:
Trump really cocked this up.

So many mistakes.....I mean twice bombing Iranian negotiating teams......He went balls deep without having a knob to actually do the job. He did what all fools did and put everyone on red.

His madman and no loyalty approach doesn't work when you need others to help you.

If he can't get subversion invasions to overthrow the regime.....And why would they trust him?.....He has to take the L and just leave......If this was twenty years ago he could throw two hundred thousand troops into Iran and beat them because back then America had far more quality troops than it has now (despite the larger budget) and we didn't have drones.

If I were him I'd focus on helping the Saudis stay in power because if he loses the House of Saud that's bigger than losing the Iranian war.

Like the saying goes, 'there's no fool, like an old fool'.

I could see Israel small nuking Iran.....which would have consequences far beyond the middle east.
Click to expand...

Something did need to happen with Iran & it's support for terror proxies but this war has been one catastrophic failure after another, the CIA/mossad uprising was doomed from the start, the US was far too slow to support protesters & the weapons supplied to the Kurds never filtered into the Iranian population & who can blame the Kurds for hording weapons? The US have been shafting the Kurds for decades, arguably it's uniparty doctrine.
The Iranian regime will no doubt feel justified in crushing protesters given the American plan to arm them.

Im reading this morning from one of the osint accounts on X that some Saudi units sent to Yemen comprised of about 20% real people & 80% ghost units that don't actually exist which is the most middle east of middle east things I've read today, it's Afghanistan all over again.

The US are either incapable or unwilling to help the Saudi's - a strategic ally in the region & a country that pays billions for US defence, were likely going to see Pakistan & Turkey get involved soon & it needs to be soon because Iran & the Houthis are double ending Saudi Arabia & it won't be long before its billionaire ruling class flees the country.

A quick Segway into Turkey, Turkey has something like 20,000 troops in Syria I can't find the link now but I did read they plan to boost this to 400,000 to counter the Israeli's.
 
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