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Qualifying for Europe - What Would We Need?

C

Canterbury Palace

Member
Location
Whitstable
Country
England
We're mathematically safe and this is probably our best chance of Europe since we came up (ignoring that FA Cup final...). We have the semi as one route and also it is looking do-able within the league after today's game.

By default England gets four Champions League places (top 4 in the league), two Europa League places (fifth in league and FA Cup winners) and a Conference League place (EFL Cup winners).

However, we're likely to get a fifth Champions League spot through England being one of the best two performing nations across European competition this season. There is also a chance that Either Manchester United or Spurs could also get into the Champions League if they win the Europa League.

There's a really slim chance that every club down to 11th gets into Europe through a very specific set of circumstances.

However, it seems most likely that maybe 8th or 9th will be enough to get in. We're currently 11th and four points behind Brighton in 8th, two behind Bournemouth in 9th and two behind Fulham in 10th. We have a game in hand on both Brighton and Bournemouth.

Over the last season, the average points needed to finish eighth is 57 (60, 60 & 52), whilst the average for ninth is 54 (52, 59 & 61).

Based on their average points per games so far, Brighton are on course for 57 points, Bournemouth 55 points and Fulham 57 points. We're on course for 54 points but, of course if you factor in that awful start we are on a much better trajectory than that.

Given that all three of those clubs are now seeing stuttering form, they might not achieve those totals but I still reckon we're gonna need another 13/14 points from out last 8 games to get eigth and maybe 11/12 to stand a chance of ninth.

We have the hardest closing fixtures in the league but, on current form, is there anyone that we're really scared of?

Sorry for all the numbers but I'm excited. Going to have a beer and calm down now.
 
Canterbury Palace said:
We're mathematically safe and this is probably our best chance of Europe since we came up (ignoring that FA Cup final...). We have the semi as one route and also it is looking do-able within the league after today's game.

By default England gets four Champions League places (top 4 in the league), two Europa League places (fifth in league and FA Cup winners) and a Conference League place (EFL Cup winners).

However, we're likely to get a fifth Champions League spot through England being one of the best two performing nations across European competition this season. There is also a chance that Either Manchester United or Spurs could also get into the Champions League if they win the Europa League.

There's a really slim chance that every club down to 11th gets into Europe through a very specific set of circumstances.

However, it seems most likely that maybe 8th or 9th will be enough to get in. We're currently 11th and four points behind Brighton in 8th, two behind Bournemouth in 9th and two behind Fulham in 10th. We have a game in hand on both Brighton and Bournemouth.

Over the last season, the average points needed to finish eighth is 57 (60, 60 & 52), whilst the average for ninth is 54 (52, 59 & 61).

Based on their average points per games so far, Brighton are on course for 57 points, Bournemouth 55 points and Fulham 57 points. We're on course for 54 points but, of course if you factor in that awful start we are on a much better trajectory than that.

Given that all three of those clubs are now seeing stuttering form, they might not achieve those totals but I still reckon we're gonna need another 13/14 points from out last 8 games to get eigth and maybe 11/12 to stand a chance of ninth.

We have the hardest closing fixtures in the league but, on current form, is there anyone that we're really scared of?

Sorry for all the numbers but I'm excited. Going to have a beer and calm down now.
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Well worth a thread but also perhaps sectioning Canterbury as Europe is a ludicrous ambition, perhaps even an insane notion, for a club like ours...

I’ll wait for it to be down to the last 5 games before entertaining the thought 😛
 
Eight games to get another seven points to break the 50 mark is all I’m looking at at the moment, but if we could sneak into the Europa Conference place I’d love a bit of European football down at selhurst next season even if our squad would struggle to cope
 
Hopefully we win the fa cup and will get into Europe that way. But reading the breakdown, it seems you're guaranteed a Europa conference place if you finish 8th, which is definitely achievable. Newcastle have won the league cup but will almost certainly finish higher than 8th so will qualify for either the champions league or the Europa league.

It's my dream to watch palace in Europe, I know the conference is a bit tinpot but atleast we would have a fairly good chance of winning it. So hopefully we keep up our good form.
 
Nicholas91 said:
Well worth a thread but also perhaps sectioning Canterbury as Europe is a ludicrous ambition, perhaps even an insane notion, for a club like ours...

I’ll wait for it to be down to the last 5 games before entertaining the thought 😛
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Ah come on, it's not a ludicrous ambition at this point, is it? Over the last decade Wigan, Swansea, Hull, Burnley, Wolves and Brighton have all played in Europe. Why can't we?

We're 2 games away from achieving it in the FA Cup or would potentially need 4 or 5 wins from our last 8 league games.

Given that we're already safe and among the form sides in Europe at the moment, I think we can allow ourselves to dream a little just for once...
 
Canterbury Palace said:
Ah come on, it's not a ludicrous ambition at this point, is it? Over the last decade Wigan, Swansea, Hull, Burnley, Wolves and Brighton have all played in Europe. Why can't we?

We're 2 games away from achieving it in the FA Cup or would potentially need 4 or 5 wins from our last 8 league games.

Given that we're already safe and among the form sides in Europe at the moment, I think we can allow ourselves to dream a little just for once...
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Even Millwall have played in Europe before 😳🤣
 
Coming up with a good song for Eurovision is our best way to get into Europe.
 
I'm not fussed about Europe. It's like another league to play in now alongside the premier league. Our players were gassed playing Southampton this week alone. The novelty of playing genk or spaghetti every week would also soon wear off.

I'd happily win the cup and bin European footie. 😅
 
BromleyMonkey said:
Intertoto in July that we only got in through having a good discipline record still doesn’t count for me

Much as I don’t want to big up Millwall, at least they actually got into the UEFA Cup
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It was an official UEFA cup tho. As an aside I was there for both the games v Samsunspor, 0-2 both times. The away game was so scary, I have never been back to Turkey & never will.
 
The failure to beat Southampton was a blow as it was the easiest of our remaining fixtures but if we keep getting results it is going to make the results in other games interesting. I am writing this just as I have seen (on delay) Fulham go ahead against Liverpool and Forest's failure to get at least a draw at Villa in spite of having 18 shots was a blow
We are currently about 5-1 for the cup and probably longer odds for finishing 8th. Either Spurs or United winning the Europa might be required to have a reasonable shout: I'd hate United to get in after last season's fluke.
TBH, I think it is unlikely but if we beat City (thanks Marc) I might become a believer
The Conference could be a good chance to play a lot of fringe/U21 players. Esse, for example, must be extremely frustrated at getting no competitive minutes at any level
 
At the moment European football is a dream perhaps a very small chance of happening but not something to dwell on at the moment.
 
BromleyMonkey said:
But they got knocked out by Pasta
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Correct, but pesto were all over them next round. Think we may well flag if we get knocked out of the Cup. Villa looks like being a very tough semi. They rested 8 players yesterday but still beat Forest. They have recruited well in January. However with our form at the moment we have a good chance. Then we will be looking at the final and more possible fixture congestion for us. The run in might not be so bad, as Spurs, Wolves and Liverpool may not have much to play for. That said if unexpected results occur that might also scupper our chances such as Fulham beating Liverpool !?! If we can keep our momentum going until the end of the season not an impossibility. COYP !!
 
Eagleman13 said:
It was an official UEFA cup tho. As an aside I was there for both the games v Samsunspor, 0-2 both times. The away game was so scary, I have never been back to Turkey & never will.
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I went to the home game, It was so strange playing a competitive game in July, if you could call it competitive, I think the club just treated it as part of pre-season
I certainly didn’t fancy the away game for the reason you said, they really are fanatics over there, good on you for going though
 
Palace finishing above the weeds to knock them out of the places and winning the FA Cup. OK, I'm willing to take that. 😎
 
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