Goalscoring

[PatrickA]

Glasner made an interesting observation yesterday when asked how we could improve our goalscoring.
He said perhaps we need to create 8 chances rather than 4 chances in a game, suggesting that at the ratio we convert our chances this would lead to more goals.
At first I thought he may be making a lighthearted comment, but perhaps there is a serious point.

We lack the quality of finish to convert the chances we create.
I suspect that both Olise and Eze would have 6 or more goals each at this stage and perhaps the same amount of assists.
Obviously they have moved on but it does indicate the extent of the challenge when players of that quality depart.
Pino, Wharton and Kamada are fine players, but rarely score goals and there is nothing to suggest that will change.

In the coming weeks I do wonder where the goals will come from.
We will be without Sarr and Munoz who have contributed a significant proportion of our goals this season.
Mateta is carrying an injury, is off form and will be deprived of the reliable service he usually receives from the right from Sarr and Munoz.

We can still achieve some good results with our excellent defence and strength at set pieces and hopefully in January we will bolster our attacking options with player(s) who can increase our ratio of converting the chances that we create.

 

[cryrst]

our strikers seem to have decided the keeper is an easier target at chest height and are anti shooting on the floor to the left or right either. This has to do with composure or lack of confidence.
I don’t know the answer tbh as conversion has to improve. We would be top or 2nd if we were more clinical and yesterday, Everton, Brighton, manure and more should have been 3 points.
Getting a bit frustrated about it tbh.

 

[Canterbury Palace]

I was going to start a thread about our forwards but this one will do nicely.

Look, we're having an amazing season so it feels a bit mad and entitled moaning. However, yesterday was a clear example that, if our forwards were taking their chances, we would be doing even better. And all the xG stats completely back that up.

Our xG (expected goals) this season is 26.5, whereas we've actually scored 20. We are the most underperforming side in the league on this metric by a mile, with Wolves (underperforming by 4.4) and Forest (underperforming by 3.3) the next worst.

On an individual player level, Mateta has a xG of 10, with 7 goals actually scored, Sarr has an xG of 4.1 with 3 goals scored and Pino has an xG of 2.7 with 1 goal scored. In short, all should have scored more based on their chances.

I am extremely worried about Mateta in particular, who seems to have reverted back to the form of his pre-2024 purple patch. I don't know if it's tiredness, confidence or something else but he just hasn't been the same this season regardless of his return in the league.

We clearly don't have good enough back up options to rotate either and adding at least one more forward in January should be absolutely mandatory. We should see if Chelsea will loan us Delap for the rest of the season.

 

[Willo]

I was going to start a thread about our forwards but this one will do nicely.

Look, we're having an amazing season so it feels a bit mad and entitled moaning. However, yesterday was a clear example that, if our forwards were taking their chances, we would be doing even better. And all the xG stats completely back that up.

Our xG (expected goals) this season is 26.5, whereas we've actually scored 20. We are the most underperforming side in the league on this metric by a mile, with Wolves (underperforming by 4.4) and Forest (underperforming by 3.3) the next worst.

On an individual player level, Mateta has a xG of 10, with 7 goals actually scored, Sarr has an xG of 4.1 with 3 goals scored and Pino has an xG of 2.7 with 1 goal scored. In short, all should have scored more based on their chances.

I am extremely worried about Mateta in particular, who seems to have reverted back to the form of his pre-2024 purple patch. I don't know if it's tiredness, confidence or something else but he just hasn't been the same this season regardless of his return in the league.

We clearly don't have good enough back up options to rotate either and adding at least one more forward in January should be absolutely mandatory. We should see if Chelsea will loan us Delap for the rest of the season.

I re-iterate that Mateta has only scored 1 goal in 'Open play' in his last 12 matches.

 

[mileend]

our strikers seem to have decided the keeper is an easier target at chest height and are anti shooting on the floor to the left or right either. This has to do with composure or lack of confidence.
I don’t know the answer tbh as conversion has to improve. We would be top or 2nd if we were more clinical and yesterday, Everton, Brighton, manure and more should have been 3 points.
Getting a bit frustrated about it tbh.

Sunderland too, although some particularly good saves were made by their keeper

 

[MrRobbo]

I've thought a lot about this recently. Mainly because its been the difference in most games of late. The Man U one the most sickening.

There are a lot that suggest that our players should practice shooting in training. Very insightful suggestion indeed!

I think for me it boils down to them not being of the very top level (and I mean elite), and unfortuently there isn't much we can do about that.

Pino looks technically really tidy, gets in loads of great positions but is a pretty woeful finisher. But lets remember is a 23 year old Spanish international, signed for £26m. If he was scoring 10-15 a season he would have cost 50m. His scoring average is about 4 a season.

Sarr, signed for £15m in his absolute peek, that tells you about the value. Scores at about 1 in 4. Will get 5-10 for us this season. Some weeks he looks like a £50m player, other weeks (like yesterday) makes lots of bad decisions.

JPM has missed a tonne this season but does already have 7 in the league. Joint 3rd. Pretty good company at that end of the scorers chats (Haarland, Thiago, Foden, Ekitike etc), all of which bar Welbeck and Semenyo were signed for/worth big money. So its far to say he's on course for a c.15 goal season. Not bad for what we paid for him.

You could go through the team, but there is even less history of goal scoring there. The only 2 real standout ones are Munoz, who has always scored and still is. And Kamada who scored well in Germany, but plays a lot deeper role for us.

Thats not to say that we can't/shouldn't be improving but should also me mindful of our expectations. Our front 3 in particular arent prolific, and have never been. In the short term we're going to need to as Glasner mentioned, generate more chances. And in time, start to upgrade the personnel.

 

[Badger11]

To answer the Op, Goalscoring

Yes that would be nice.

 

[Davepalace707]

on the flip side I was at the Burnley game, we didn’t create many chances - the XG was 0.6 but we scored and won. Similarly at Fulham the XG was 1.3 and we scored 2. Maybe it’s the pressure of trying to score in the bigger games, or the defence is just that bit better making it harder?

 

[Willo]

I've thought a lot about this recently. Mainly because its been the difference in most games of late. The Man U one the most sickening.

There are a lot that suggest that our players should practice shooting in training. Very insightful suggestion indeed!

I think for me it boils down to them not being of the very top level (and I mean elite), and unfortuently there isn't much we can do about that.

Pino looks technically really tidy, gets in loads of great positions but is a pretty woeful finisher. But lets remember is a 23 year old Spanish international, signed for £26m. If he was scoring 10-15 a season he would have cost 50m. His scoring average is about 4 a season.

Sarr, signed for £15m in his absolute peek, that tells you about the value. Scores at about 1 in 4. Will get 5-10 for us this season. Some weeks he looks like a £50m player, other weeks (like yesterday) makes lots of bad decisions.

JPM has missed a tonne this season but does already have 7 in the league. Joint 3rd. Pretty good company at that end of the scorers chats (Haarland, Thiago, Foden, Ekitike etc), all of which bar Welbeck and Semenyo were signed for/worth big money. So its far to say he's on course for a c.15 goal season. Not bad for what we paid for him.

You could go through the team, but there is even less history of goal scoring there. The only 2 real standout ones are Munoz, who has always scored and still is. And Kamada who scored well in Germany, but plays a lot deeper role for us.

Thats not to say that we can't/shouldn't be improving but should also me mindful of our expectations. Our front 3 in particular arent prolific, and have never been. In the short term we're going to need to as Glasner mentioned, generate more chances. And in time, start to upgrade the personnel.

I garland these comments with approbation. 👍 👍

 

[MrRobbo]

on the flip side I was at the Burnley game, we didn’t create many chances - the XG was 0.6 but we scored and won. Similarly at Fulham the XG was 1.3 and we scored 2. Maybe it’s the pressure of trying to score in the bigger games, or the defence is just that bit better making it harder?

Sorry you had to witness that!

Defence, keeper, pressure etc will all make a difference. But we are just not clinical full stop.

Yesterday the difference in finishing was stark, Haarland vs Mateta, Foden vs Wharton

 

[park the bus]

I re-iterate that Mateta has only scored 1 goal in 'Open play' in his last 12 matches.

It's not like he's not had chances either. The only difference between him and Benteke is he works a lot harder, but the finishing is just as abysmal. To think he's angling for a lucrative new contract! If a reasonable offer came in, I'd sell. We've seen the best of him and he's not going to get any better, if anything he's reverting back to when he had the occasional run out for Hodgson.
The front line needs a good shake up.

 

[Willo]

WBA's Rune Heggebo has hit a rich vein of form scoring 8 in his last 7 games.
A physically strong Centre-forward with an impressive work rate.
Ryan Mason signed him from FK Brann for just over £4.5 Mill.

 

[MrRobbo]

WBA's Rune Heggebo has hit a rich vein of form scoring 8 in his last 7 games.
A physically strong Centre-forward with an impressive work rate.
Ryan Mason signed him from FK Brann for just over £4.5 Mill.

But its his only 8 of the season, and scored 7 last season. Nowhere near the level we need to move us forward.

IMO need to be looking at someone with a profile like Igor Thiago. 15 league goals, 20 in all comps when he's 21, moves leagues and then scores 18 league and 29 overall. Bags of goals at a young age, has stepped up a quality level and performed even better.

Massive injury last year, but now 11 goals in 14.

 

[MancunianEagle]

on the flip side I was at the Burnley game, we didn’t create many chances - the XG was 0.6 but we scored and won. Similarly at Fulham the XG was 1.3 and we scored 2. Maybe it’s the pressure of trying to score in the bigger games, or the defence is just that bit better making it harder?

Burnley game was my first away day😂

 

[PatrickA]

I probably take a different view to many on here in terms of the desire to sell or drop Mateta.
Clubs like Palace don't often have goalscorers with his record and they shouldn't be discarded too readily.

With regard to his lack of goals in his last 11 or so games I'm old enough to remember people saying the same of Greaves, Lineker and Shearer when they went through similarly lean phases.

The fact that Mateta has missed chances this season is undeniable.
Many of them have been 1 on 1 chances v the keeper when he doesn't excel and tends to hit the keeper or drag the ball wide.
He's better at one or two touch finishes with balls played across the area when he has the knack of getting on the end of things with instinctive finishes.
Get that service to him and he'll score.

Glasner says Mateta is the best finisher he's ever worked with.
If we get an unbelievable offer for him, by all means consider it - but we better have a suitable replacement capable of a similar goal record lined up.

 

[Nicholas91]

Not a well thought out opinion but I am inclined to think it's confidence more than anything else. Encapsulated perfectly by Pino's bizarre choice of shot when he missed his early chance against City.

If our players were on a real high, scoring frequently, such finishes come naturally without much thought behind them.

I think most of them, especially those who've historically not found the net many times, just look to be overthinking and lacking in conviction when the opportunities present themselves.

The almost ridiculous suggestion is to just 'score more' and the confidence will come however this is where I adopt blind faith in our best ever manager and hope he finds a resolution.

 

[PalazioVecchio]

we seem to sky a lot of chances in front of goal. Usually with a one shot tap from a high - difficult to control - cross. Perhaps we try more of the 'two touch' approach. And yes, we seem to hit very few low shots to the corners of the goal. Even all our numerous woodwork-hittings are high.

 

[Eagle-Trucker]

I re-iterate that Mateta has only scored 1 goal in 'Open play' in his last 12 matches.

That's just not good enough ! I'm sure a few of our defenders have equalled that stat and in Daniel Muñoz case he has probably surpassed that .

 

[Painter]

Anyone would think that we have been a free scoring team in the past and its all gone wrong this season. Nothing could be further than the truth, last season we had scored 17 goals after game 16, this season 20 after week 16. The difference is, we let less goals in 15 apose to 21 last season.
Its all down to fine margins and an element of luck.

 

[Willo]

But its his only 8 of the season, and scored 7 last season. Nowhere near the level we need to move us forward.

IMO need to be looking at someone with a profile like Igor Thiago. 15 league goals, 20 in all comps when he's 21, moves leagues and then scores 18 league and 29 overall. Bags of goals at a young age, has stepped up a quality level and performed even better.

Massive injury last year, but now 11 goals in 14.

Igor Thiago cost Brentford £30 Mill.
He has been impressive in some games I have watched but yesterday against Leeds I am informed he was disappointing.
He is a hard working, 'Pressing' player and provides a physical presence.He is akin to a throw-back centre forward and is technically proficient.